ASML Holding Management Presents At Goldman Sachs Technology And Internet Conference (Transcript)

ASML Holding ( ASML)

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Technology and Internet Conference

Feb 14, 2012 17:40 PM ET

Analyst

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Presentation

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

Well thanks everyone for joining us here with ASML Holding, Goldman Sachs Conference just for the sake of the webcast as well. I am Simon Schafer, I cover ASML and Liotech for New York Goldman and other.

Greg we have done this for a number of years, so really great for you doing this again. Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative

It's my pleasure.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

We have not had from a great deal of companies in Semicap today, I think Ram presented and in Tarzian we had from two and they sort of shared this outlook of look (inaudible) adequately and broadly flat and I think ASML has also provided an outlook for the past but you haven’t quite ventured into the territory of providing full year outlook. Maybe just remind the audience as to what your latest expectations because you did talk about just a couple of weeks back on your quarterly.

Unidentified Company Representative

Yes we were in a fortunate position a year ago to have a huge backlog coming into 2011 whereby we could actually guide with some level of confidence for the full year and in the end things worked quite well in that regard. We have posted of course a record level revenue of 5.6 billion. There was some uncertainty as we traveled through the third and into the fourth quarter of last year regard what the first half of this year may look like. We had a fairly clear view given to us by our customer regards what their requirements might be in the first quarter at least but through the course of the third quarter and again into early fourth quarter they were hesitant to place orders against those their forecast.

So, just to give you an idea ASML bills to a forecast, so we do a bottoms up and we do a top down and then we try to bring those together as far as we can and based on how well those match we go ahead and do production planning.

So, we are not so interested to use a word in kind of the CapEx announcements of our customers because we are forced because of our lead time to prepare well in advance of when our customers might decide to broadcast what their CapEx looks like. But in the end in the November time frame we saw our customers attitude change a bit, they grew in their confidence level, certainly in the foundry space and they came through with orders or certainly gave us reason to believe that they would through the course of this quarter and next you know live up to their word relative to their forecast.

So at the end of the quarter with our 1.7 at the end of year, with our 1.7 billion in backlog in addition to the discussions we continued to have with our customers, we were able to guide a 2.4 billion first half but that is the extent of visibility and we are just not in a position now to really know what the second half might look like to the course of this discussion we can talk about our view on the different sectors if you would like but maybe I will leave at that for the time being and we will proceed with your next question.

Simon Schafer - Goldman Sachs

And as you said, I have somehow actually I am like many other Semicap businesses given your lead time, you actually have given some of this is, it's made to manufacture you know, people know what their strengthens, forecast are roughly, I mean the subject change but broadly speaking people have a good idea. So when you look at your own forecast and your customers project trends maybe just walk us through what you are seeing, one maybe in memory in times of supply and demand, what is that people are projecting?

Unidentified Company Representative

Yes so currently we have models that allow us to given the certain bit growth expectations, so demand bit growth we can calculate the number of tools that are required to support that given the nodes and the way for start at each node that our customers discuss with us and make public otherwise.

So we are able to kind of forecast a system demand based on that, so currently the industry analyst forecast for DRAM bit growth this year are in the low 40s and we know that given the shrinks that our customers have in place or that they expect to do through the course of this year that they can grow bits to about that amount. So there is no need for the DRAM industry to add wafer capacity to grow bits to the current demand forecast.

But it does require them to invest in continued shrink at the rates that they have already indicated to us and to again in some cases publically. In the NAND sector and by the way I am sorry let me finish off on DRAM. If you look at ASMLs backlog today only about 10% I believe is for DRAM. So off our 1.7 billion that’s roughly a 170 million euros worth of equipment and if you think about emerging tools that 40 million euros each it's only four tools.

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