The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.By Marc Chandler NEW YORK ( BBH FX Strategy) -- Uncertainty over the participation in the Greek bond swap is a major source of anxiety Tuesday. Rumors circulating earlier that the Private Sector Involvement "invitation" would be extended by a week due to low participation have been officially denied, but rumors illustrate the market's apprehensions.
In recent days, the prices of Greek CDS have risen as more investors have suspected that a credit event may be triggered after all and have sought protection. On balance, the current available information set suggests participation is coming in around 75% to 80%. The low end would more than likely see the CACs triggered. At the high end -- say 80% to 85% -- it is possible the Greek government does not trigger the CACs. If the CACs are triggered, there likely will be fallout in the peripheral countries, including Spain and Italy. There also likely will be negative repercussions on financial sector shares. Currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars as well as the Swedish krona would likely be sold off. Among the majors, the dollar and yen are likely to outperform. Emerging-market currencies would in general also be sold off. Equities would be sold. Core bonds, like those from Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. likely would outperform.