10 Reasons Obama Will Be Re-Elected

The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The four remaining candidates for the Republican presidential nomination have been running hard, and this week's Super Tuesday primaries are likely to winnow the field. It still seems likely that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney will be the eventual winner, though it remains to be seen whether the protracted and sometimes bloody battle for the nomination has made him a better candidate or has left lingering concerns in the minds of voters.

Ultimately, though, it may not matter. President Obama will be re-elected, and here's why:

1. The Iraq war is over. When President Obama was elected, the U.S. was embroiled in a messy and expensive war in Iraq. The mission had become muddled, and President Bush's premature declaration of victory hadn't brought our exhausted troops home. Obama kept his promise to end the Iraq war and, along the way, succeeded in killing Osama bin Laden and several of his key advisors. Now, Obama is starting to wind up the war in Afghanistan. Making peace is a great way to win elections.

2. The economy is recovering. The market crash of 2008 and the recession that followed put the country through its toughest times since the Great Depression. It's not at all clear that presidents can do much to turn our economy around, but voters blame presidents when the economy is bad and reward them when things improve. It's probably too soon to be certain that the economy won't slump back into recession but, if the stock market continues to rise and unemployment falls, President Obama will likely get the credit whether he deserves it or not.

>>Also see: 10 Reasons Obama Will Not Be Re-Elected

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3. The Detroit bailout worked. When President Obama took office, the U.S. automobile industry was in such a shambles that some experts thought its complete demise was inevitable. Obama took some serious criticism for agreeing to bail out U.S. automakers, but the program was a success. The president recently boasted to the United Auto Workers annual conference that the big three automakers are turning profits, opening new factories and hiring again. The industry has added more than 200,000 jobs and is building more fuel-efficient cars to boot. Detroit voters will remember that -- and so will manufacturing workers from other industries.

4. "Don't ask, don't tell" is over. President Obama kept his promise to repeal a federal law requiring homosexuals to stay closeted if they served in the Armed Forces. Now, gay men and women can serve openly. This change may not please conservative voters (who likely wouldn't have voted for Obama anyway), but gay voters will approve, as will more liberal voters who supported the repeal.

5. Health care reform is here. The president's health care reform bill has taken a lot of criticism from the Republican nominees. But for voters who needed health insurance or who were paying for expensive prescription drugs, the new law could be a real godsend. Overall, health care reform is likely to help the president more than it hurts him.

6. Veterans' benefits are better. There hasn't been much in the mainstream news about this, but the Obama administration has supported a range of improvements in military benefits. Veterans' health care access and quality have improved, job training and child care are more available, and mortgage fees for deployed military have been reduced. Veterans who've benefited from the changes may well thank the president with their votes in November.

7. Congress caused the gridlock. The news has been packed with embarrassing stories about how badly members of Congress from both sides of the aisle have behaved of late. The U.S. even suffered a humiliating downgrade from Standard & Poors because Congress couldn't come together to manage the nation's finances. Voters know that it's Congress, and not the president, that has gummed up the works of the federal government, and Congress' approval ratings are shockingly low. A vote against Congressional antics may well equal a vote for Obama.

8. He's a great communicator. Obama and his campaign advisors have already demonstrated their skill at reaching out to voters through the Internet. That will give the president an advantage over his Republican rivals, who seem to be less tech-savvy. (Of the four contenders for the Republican nomination, only Mitt Romney even has a searchable Web site.) Young voters in particular are likely to respond again to the president's call; if you tweet them, they will vote.

9. He's an even better debater. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has emphasized his own public speaking skills, arguing that he's the only Republican hopeful who could beat Obama in a one-to-one debate. Gingrich may well be right, but it doesn't look as though he'll be the Republican nominee. Mitt Romney has already demonstrated a knack for making unfortunate verbal gaffes behind the podium, while Obama has demonstrated time and again that he can make his points while remaining calm, cool and, well, presidential. That contrast is likely to push independent voters in Obama's direction.

10. He's the cutest guy at the dance. None of the remaining Republican candidates is an unqualified superstar. Romney and Gingrich both have persistent problems with likeability and, while the president needn't necessarily be likeable to do the job, most voters seem to prefer candidates with whom they'd like to be personal friends. Former Senator Rick Santorum is likeable as all get-out, but his strongly conservative, faith-based views on social issues are liable to alienate more moderate voters. Ron Paul's libertarian philosophy is shared by few mainstream Americans. President Obama, by contrast, has a real gift for connecting with people on a down-to-earth level. Voters who don't like the eventual Republican nominee will likely turn to Obama even if they don't agree with all of his positions.

A lot can happen in seven months, and the outcome of the presidential election is far from certain. Still, at least for now, it looks as though this election is President Obama's to lose.

This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

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