Central Bank Liquidity Props Markets: Dave's Daily



I would advise most to forget PEs, current earnings and dividends, global economic indicators and even Greece (if only temporarily). The number one factor driving global stock indexes higher are monetary policies and liquidity impact from the three central bank amigos. Sure markets are overbought and volume remains scant. The first condition is readily viewed by any number of respectable indicators: McClellan Summation Index (featured near the end of this posting), DeMark Indicators, Relative Strength Index and so forth). Light volume is due to ongoing investor flight as many sit on their hands.

Over the past month we've been adding to long equity positions but admit to holding our nose as we do so. Light volume, overbought conditions and exogenous events make markets "accident prone". It scares the hell out of most investors and when combined with animal spirits and pressure to perform it's a tough market to rationalize. Call it what you will, central banks are printing, adding liquidity and this will force stock prices to inflate. The results may be little different than seen with QE1, QE2 and now global QE3. It's Keynes on steroids.

So don't let the financial media BS you about this and that--know what's really going on and either surrender to it, as we must, or stay away as it seems many are.

Stocks were unchanged early, fell on Greek rumors and then rose again late abetted by algos and their HFT cohorts. It's the new normal folks.

Earnings news was led by Time Warner (TWX) which beat estimates ($.94 vs $.89 expected), Moody's (MCO) missed ($.43 versus $.49 expected) and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) beating earnings Tuesday after the close ($.75 versus $.67 expected). BWLD shares were up nearly 17% on Wednesday. This must be what the USA is now about--gadgets, sports and fast food.

After the close much watched Visa (V) reported earnings that beat estimates ($1.49 versus $1.45) and the stock rose slightly in late trading. Whole Foods (WFM) reported earnings late which also beat estimates ($.65 versus $.60 expected). Cisco (CSCO) reported earnings ($.47 versus $.38 expected) after many adjustments. The stock rose over 3% in late trading. Groupon (GRPN) reported a loss (-$.08 versus $.03 expected) and the stock was down nearly 8% in late trading.

Gold prices fell as the dollar recovered most of its intraday losses. The same could be said for other markets like crude oil which was also higher early but gave back most its gains along with other commodities.  Bonds were only slightly lower.

Volume was once again light and breadth per the WSJ was mildly positive amping-up overbought conditions.

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SPY - The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF is a fund that, before expenses, generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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IWM - The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market as represented by the Russell 2000 Index. The index represents the approximately 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index.
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QQQ - is an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq-100 Index ®. The Fund will, under most circumstances, consists of all of stocks in the Index. The Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The portfolio is rebalanced quarterly and reconstituted annually. See more details

Continue to U.S. Sector, Stocks & Bond ETFs

TAN - The Guggenheim/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the performance, before the Fund's fees and expenses, of an equity index called the MAC Global Solar Energy Index. The Fund will normally invest at least 90% of its total assets in common stock, American depositary receipts and global depositary receipts that comprise the Index. Guggenheim Advisors, LLC seeks a correlation over time of 0.95 or better between the Fund's performance and the performance of the Index.
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IGN - The iShares S&P North American Technology-Multimedia Networking Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of U.S.-traded multimedia networking stocks as represented by the S&P North American Technology-Multimedia Networking Index¿.
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FDN -  The First Trust Dow Jones Internet IndexSM Fund is an exchange-traded index fund. The investment objective of the fund is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield of the Dow Jones Internet IndexSM. For a stock to be included in the selection universe for the index, a company must generate at least 50% of its annual sales/revenues from the Internet.
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XLF - The Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Financial Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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XLY - The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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IEF - The iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index.
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EMLC - The Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the J.P. Morgan GBI-EMG Core Index (GBIEMCOR). The underlying Index provides direct exposure to local currency bonds issued by emerging market governments. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in emerging market debt securities.
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Continue to Currency & Commodity Market ETFs

UUP - The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (Symbol: UUP) is based on the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX®) Futures Index¿ (DB Long USD Futures Index). The Index, which is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC, is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.
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FXE - CurrencyShares Euro Trust is designed to track the price of the euro net of Trust expenses, which are expected to be paid from interest earned on the deposited euros.
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GLD - The objective of the SPDR® Gold Trust¿ is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses.
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SLV - The objective of the iShares Silver Trust is for the value of the shares of the iShares Silver Trust to reflect, at any given time, the price of silver owned by the iShares Silver Trust at that time, less the iShares Silver Trust's expenses and liabilities.
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JJC - The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.
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DJP - The iPath® Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark ETN is linked to the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The commodities represented in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark are rebalanced annually; however, the weightings fluctuate between rebalancings due to changes in market prices.
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USO - The United States Oil Fund, LP ("USO") is a domestic exchange traded security designed to track the movements of light, sweet crude oil ("West Texas Intermediate").
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UGA - The United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of gasoline prices.
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IXC - The iShares S&P Global Energy Sector Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of companies that Standard & Poor's deems part of the energy sector of the economy and important to global markets, as represented by the S&P Global Energy Sector Index. The index is a subset of the Standard & Poor's Global 1200 Index.
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DBA - The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund is based on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index Diversified Agriculture Excess Return¿ and managed by DB Commodity Services LLC. The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities. The Index is intended to reflect the performance of the agricultural sector.
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Continue to Overseas Sectors & ETFs

EFA - The iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australasian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index.
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EEM - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in emerging markets, as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
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THD - The iShares MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index.
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ILF - The iShares S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of companies in the Mexican and South American equity markets as represented by the Standard & Poor's Latin America 40 Index.
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EPHE - The iShares MSCI Philippines Investable Market Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Philippines Investable Market Index.
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EWG - The iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the German market, as measured by the MSCI Germany Index.
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EPI - WisdomTree India Earnings Fund seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the WisdomTree India Earnings Index.
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GXC - The SPDR® S&P® China ETF, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the total return performance of the S&P China BMI Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

Continue to Concluding Remarks

Jobless Claims (370K consensus) will finally produce some economic data for U.S. investors to digest. Greece is the drama that keeps on giving with more scenes and acts than one can possibly imagine.

The bottom line is the three central banks with the biggest printing presses are producing the liquidity the machines, hedge funds and banks use to support markets.

Let's see what happens.

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current positions if any are embedded within charts. Active Portfolios: IAU, VWO, IXC, IVE, KRE, XLK, XBI, EWY, THD, & ILF. Our Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

 

The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com .

 
This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest, Dave's Daily blog and the best-selling book author of Create Your Own ETF Hedge Fund, A DIY Strategy for Private Wealth Management, published by Wiley Finance in 2008. A detailed bio is here: Dave Fry.

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