The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.By David Gillie NEW YORK ( ETF Digest) -- I started learning about the stock market by building and launching model rockets with my older brother. No matter what the shape and size of the rocket or how big the engine was, we knew it was going to come down. We hoped the parachute would open and it would have a soft landing somewhere near the launch area. Of course, there were duds, crash landings and, on occasion, lost rockets. So it is with the stock market. The market left the launch pad in mid December. Just like in model rocketry, we can estimate how high it will go by the size of the engine (volume, economic data, etc.). What we can't be sure of is how far the momentum will take the market after the fuel runs out. We hope that the chute opens and it returns safely to earth. Barring any strange winds such as a blowup in Europe or war breaking out between Israel and Iran, we can estimate the recovery area. We'll plot the course on the weekly SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DIA) chart, which corresponds to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.