Stocks Close Green Month in the Red: Dave's Daily



Stocks are closing the month with another reversal day well off the lows. Like Monday, afternoon dip buyers aren't taking any selling lying down. Overall the month was one of the best Januarys on record returning 3% to 8%.

Market moving news on Tuesday featured news from the eurozone, economic data in the U.S. and earnings.

From the eurozone, we learned that the EU has approved on a fiscal and budget discipline mechanism going forward. All but two countries (Czechoslovakia and Britain) approved the new treaty. Also the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) also known as "money printing" and "bailouts" will be launched on July 1 st one year earlier. Understandably one might take a "trust but verify" approach since many previous agreements have come to nothing. Nevertheless, this so-called treaty took European stocks higher. This is featured in the "Overseas Sectors & ETFs" section of this commentary with EFA, EZU, EWU, EWG and others.

Earnings news from U.S. companies was just okay but guidance was weaker overall including Exxon Mobil (XOM), Pfizer (PFE), Untied Parcel (UPS), Illinois Tool Works (ITW) and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM). After the close, Amazon (AMZN), and liked to ETF (FDN) reported a disappointing report which sent shares sharply lower. All these companies are linked to charts and ETFs within "U.S. Sector, Stocks & Bond ETFs" section below which include matching ETFs (XLE, XLV, IYT and XLY).

Economic data missed estimates including: Chicago PMI; 60 vs 63; Consumer Confidence 61 vs 68 expected; and, Case Shiller Home Prices down 1.3% taking prices back to 2003 levels.

Frankly there are only a few groups trading these markets: HFTs, Hedge Funds, overseas investors and what's left of reinvestment from captive assets domestically. That's about it. Markets remain overbought frankly. And, the old saying, "as goes January, so goes the year" will be much promoted.

Volume remains light even by the now descending three month average for bellwether SPY (190M shares) and breadth per the WSJ was once again mixed.

You can follow our pithy comments on twitter and join the banter with me on facebook.

SPY - The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF is a fund that, before expenses, generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
See more details

IWM - The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market as represented by the Russell 2000 Index. The index represents the approximately 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index.
See more details

QQQ - is an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq-100 Index ®. The Fund will, under most circumstances, consists of all of stocks in the Index. The Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The portfolio is rebalanced quarterly and reconstituted annually. See more details

Continue to U.S. Sector, Stocks & Bond ETFs

FDN -  The First Trust Dow Jones Internet IndexSM Fund is an exchange-traded index fund. The investment objective of the fund is to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield of the Dow Jones Internet IndexSM. For a stock to be included in the selection universe for the index, a company must generate at least 50% of its annual sales/revenues from the Internet.
See more details

SOXX - The iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of U.S.-listed semiconductor stocks as represented by the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index ("the Index").
See more details

XLE - The Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Energy Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
See more details

XLV - The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Health Care Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
See more details

IYT - The iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of Dow Jones Transportation Average Index.
See more details

XLI - The Industrial Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Industrial Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
See more details

XLP - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Consumer Staples Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
See more details

IEF - The iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index.
See more details

TLT - The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the long-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index.
See more details

Continue to Currency & Commodity Market ETFs

UUP - The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (Symbol: UUP) is based on the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX®) Futures Index¿ (DB Long USD Futures Index). The Index, which is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC, is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.
See more details

FXE - CurrencyShares Euro Trust is designed to track the price of the euro net of Trust expenses, which are expected to be paid from interest earned on the deposited euros.
See more details

GLD - The objective of the SPDR® Gold Trust¿ is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses.
See more details

GDX - The Gold Miners ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The Index provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide involved primarily in the mining for gold, representing a diversified blend of small-, mid- and large- capitalization stocks. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in this sector.
See more details

SLV - The objective of the iShares Silver Trust is for the value of the shares of the iShares Silver Trust to reflect, at any given time, the price of silver owned by the iShares Silver Trust at that time, less the iShares Silver Trust's expenses and liabilities.
See more details

JJC - The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.
See more details

DJP - The iPath® Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark ETN is linked to the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The commodities represented in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark are rebalanced annually; however, the weightings fluctuate between rebalancings due to changes in market prices.
See more details

USO - The United States Oil Fund, LP ("USO") is a domestic exchange traded security designed to track the movements of light, sweet crude oil ("West Texas Intermediate").
See more details

UGA - The United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of gasoline prices.
See more details

UNG - The United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of natural gas prices.
See more details

FCG - The First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund is an exchange-traded fund. The investment objective of the Fund is to seek investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield, before fees and expenses, of an equity index called the ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index. The ISE-Revere Natural Gas IndexTM is an equal-weighted index comprised of exchange-listed companies that derive a substantial portion of their revenues from the exploration and production of natural gas. See more details

DBA - The PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund is based on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index Diversified Agriculture Excess Return¿ and managed by DB Commodity Services LLC. The Index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities. The Index is intended to reflect the performance of the agricultural sector.
See more details 

JJG - The Dow Jones-UBS Grains Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the Index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The Index is currently composed of three futures contracts on grains traded on U.S. exchanges.
See more details

MOO - The Agribusiness ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the DAXglobal® Agribusiness Index. The Index provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide that derive at least 50% of their revenues from the business of agriculture. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in this sector.
See more details

Continue to Overseas Sectors & ETFs

EFA - The iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australasian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index.
See more details

EZU - The iShares MSCI EMU Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European Monetary Union (EMU) markets, as measured by the MSCI EMU Index.
See more details

EEM - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in emerging markets, as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
See more details

EWG - The iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the German market, as measured by the MSCI Germany Index.
See more details

EWU - The iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the British market, as measured by the MSCI United Kingdom Index.
See more details

EWY - The iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the South Korean market, as measured by the MSCI Korea Index.
See more details

EWZ - The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Brazilian market, as measured by the MSCI Brazil Index.
See more details

RSX - The Russia ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the DAXglobal® Russia+ Index. The Index provides exposure to publicly traded companies that are domiciled in Russia, and traded in Russia and/or on leading global exchanges. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in this country.
See more details

EPI - WisdomTree India Earnings Fund seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the WisdomTree India Earnings Index.
See more details

GXC - The SPDR® S&P® China ETF, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the total return performance of the S&P China BMI Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
See more details

The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

Continue to Concluding Remarks

More economic data Wednesday including: ADP Employment Report, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending and Petroleum Inventories. More earnings will also be featured and we'll see if bulls shrug off Amazon's woeful report.

Let's see what happens.

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current positions if any are embedded within charts. Active Portfolios: No Positions. Our Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: QQQ, XLK, VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

 

 

The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com .

 
This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest, Dave's Daily blog and the best-selling book author of Create Your Own ETF Hedge Fund, A DIY Strategy for Private Wealth Management, published by Wiley Finance in 2008. A detailed bio is here: Dave Fry.