Iran's delay has reduced the risk of any pressing oil supply shortages, putting pressure on oil prices. "Given its dependency on oil revenues, it is in any case doubtful that Iran will take this step," says Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank Commodity Research. Whereas the sanction of Iranian oil by European countries wouldn't be pain free, as they would have to go through the trouble of finding new suppliers offering favorable crude prices, an outright ban by Iran of its exports, likewise, would require the country to scramble for new buyers willing to pay for the goods at existing price levels. Still, if Iran were to decide in favor of a complete export ban, there would still be an extra cushion for world supply, thanks to a ramp up by Libya of its oil output to 80% of the pre-war level. Commerzbank research shows that while money managers increased their net long positions in WTI by 11,200 contracts to a ten-week high of 175,377 contracts in the week to Jan. 24, given the European oil embargo, the WTI price hasn't benefited from the moves.