Fear of Being Left Behind: Dave's Daily

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The primary news pushing stocks higher Wednesday was hard to put together. Some were pleased by eurozone reports the IMF was proposing to add $500 billion to the bailout facility bringing the total to nearly $1 trillion. Such a move would require congressional approval if we still have a constitution and the rule of law. Anyway, that idea was shot down by the U.S. Treasury.

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported earnings that beat street estimates. The company had given analysts guidance lowering estimates severely so when the company beat reduced estimates we rallied squeezing shorts. In turn this lifted financials (XLF) and other banks like JP Morgan (JPM) which disappointed the previous Friday. Nevertheless, it still remains important that financials are in the mix of a rally higher since there has never been a market rally without their participation.

Later homebuilder sentiment improved from 21 to 25 (50 being contraction) and this was spun to embellish the "housing market bottom" theme. Perhaps this also helped banks rally since they're still sitting on a lot of toxic waste still covered up by mark to a model valuations. Homebuilders (ITB) were higher on the day and you can watch our chart video on this at TheStreet.com most likely Thursday morning.

Industrial Production data rose .4% which missed estimates of .5% but the miss was ignored. Also ignored was a World Bank report stating the eurozone was already in recession and the rest of the world could join them soon.

Headline Producer Prices were down .1% and the core rate less food and energy was up .3%. The latter was ignored and bulls were thinking the headline number now gives the Fed a chance to launch more QE. I kid you not.

Gold prices rallied slightly with a weaker dollar as the euro rallied; oil prices were relatively flat; agricultural commodities were weak; base metals were stronger; and, bond prices were lower.

Volume was modestly higher but still quite light and perhaps this is the new normal. Breadth per the WSJ was quite positive.

  

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SPY - The SPDR® S&P 500® ETF is a fund that, before expenses, generally corresponds to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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IWM - The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the small capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market as represented by the Russell 2000 Index. The index represents the approximately 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index.
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QQQ - PowerShares Capital Management LLC is passionate about our goal of delivering the highest quality investment management available through one of the more benefit-rich investment vehicles ever created, the exchange-traded fund.PowerShares QQQ¿, formerly known as "QQQ" or the "NASDAQ- 100 Index Tracking Stock®", is an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq-100 Index®. The Fund will, under most circumstances, consists of all of stocks in the Index. The Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The portfolio is rebalanced quarterly and reconstituted annually.
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Continue to U.S. Sector, Stocks & Bond ETFs

XLK - The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Technology Select Sector Index (ticker: IXT). Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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SOXX - The iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of U.S.-listed semiconductor stocks as represented by the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index ("the Index").
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KBE - The SPDR® KBW Bank ETF, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the KBW Bank Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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XLF - The Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Financial Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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XHB - The SPDR® S&P® Homebuilders ETF, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the S&P Homebuilders Select IndustryTM Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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ITB - The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index.
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IEF - The iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks to approximate the total rate of return of the intermediate-term sector of the United States Treasury market as defined by the Barclays Capital U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index.
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PGF - The PowerShares Financial Preferred Portfolio (Fund) is based on the Wachovia Hybrid & Preferred Securities Financial Index (WHPSsm Financial Index) (Index). The Fund will normally invest at least 90% of its total assets in preferred securities that comprise the Index. The Index tracks the performance of U.S. listed preferred stocks of preferred stocks issued in the US market by financial institutions and currently includes approximately 30 securities selected by Wachovia pursuant to a proprietary selection methodology. The market-cap weighted Index is rebalanced monthly.
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Continue to Currency & Commodity Market ETFs

UUP - The PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish Fund (Symbol: UUP) is based on the Deutsche Bank Long US Dollar Index (USDX®) Futures Index¿ (DB Long USD Futures Index). The Index, which is managed by DB Commodity Services LLC, is a rules-based index composed solely of long USDX® futures contracts. The USDX® futures contract is designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.
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FXE - CurrencyShares Euro Trust is designed to track the price of the euro net of Trust expenses, which are expected to be paid from interest earned on the deposited euros.
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GLD - The objective of the SPDR® Gold Trust¿ is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trust's expenses.
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GDX - The Gold Miners ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The Index provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide involved primarily in the mining for gold, representing a diversified blend of small-, mid- and large- capitalization stocks. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in this sector.
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SLV - The objective of the iShares Silver Trust is for the value of the shares of the iShares Silver Trust to reflect, at any given time, the price of silver owned by the iShares Silver Trust at that time, less the iShares Silver Trust's expenses and liabilities.
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JJC - The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.
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DJP - The iPath® Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark ETN is linked to the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The commodities represented in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark are rebalanced annually; however, the weightings fluctuate between rebalancings due to changes in market prices.
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USO - The United States Oil Fund, LP ("USO") is a domestic exchange traded security designed to track the movements of light, sweet crude oil ("West Texas Intermediate").
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UGA - The United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of gasoline prices.
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UNG - The United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) is an exchange traded security that is designed to track in percentage terms the movements of natural gas prices.
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FCG - The First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund is an exchange-traded fund. The investment objective of the Fund is to seek investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield, before fees and expenses, of an equity index called the ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index. The ISE-Revere Natural Gas IndexTM is an equal-weighted index comprised of exchange-listed companies that derive a substantial portion of their revenues from the exploration and production of natural gas. The Index is constructed by establishing the total population of stocks listed in the U.S. of companies involved in the exploration and production of natural gas and then eliminates stocks whose natural gas proved reserves do not meet certain requirements.
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XLE - The Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Energy Select Sector Index. Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs.
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JJG - The Dow Jones-UBS Grains Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the Index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The Index is currently composed of three futures contracts on grains traded on U.S. exchanges.
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MOO - The Agribusiness ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the DAXglobal® Agribusiness Index. The Index provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide that derive at least 50% of their revenues from the business of agriculture. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in this sector.
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Continue to Overseas Sectors & ETFs

EFA - The iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the European, Australasian and Far Eastern markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index.
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EEM - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in emerging markets, as represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
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EWJ - The iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Japanese market, as measured by the MSCI Japan Index.
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EWA - The iShares MSCI Australia Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Australian market, as represented by the MSCI Australia Index.
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EWC - The iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Canadian market, as measured by the MSCI Canada Index.
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EWU - The iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the British market, as measured by the MSCI United Kingdom Index.
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EWG - The iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the German market, as measured by the MSCI Germany Index.
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EWI - The iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Italian market, as measured by the MSCI Italy Index.
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EWY - The iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the South Korean market, as measured by the MSCI Korea Index.
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EPHE - The iShares MSCI Philippines Investable Market Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Philippines Investable Market Index.
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EWZ - The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of publicly traded securities in the Brazilian market, as measured by the MSCI Brazil Index.
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RSX - The Russia ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the DAXglobal® Russia+ Index. The Index provides exposure to publicly traded companies that are domiciled in Russia, and traded in Russia and/or on leading global exchanges. As such, the Fund is subject to the risks of investing in this country.
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EPI - WisdomTree India Earnings Fund seeks investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the WisdomTree India Earnings Index.
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FXI - The iShares FTSE China 25 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the FTSE China 25 Index.
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The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

Continue to Concluding Remarks

It must be a challenge to be a headline writer. I struggle with it myself on some days and Wednesday was no exception. The VIX is still above 20, if only barely, which doesn't square with the action. It's almost as if many have one hand on the exit door.

Thursday is the CPI, Housing Starts, Jobless Claims (383K consensus) and the Philly Fed Survey (10 consensus). In addition we'll have more earnings to digest.

Let's see what happens.

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains active ETF trading portfolio and a wide selection of ETFs away from portfolios in an independent listing. Current positions if any are embedded within charts. Active Portfolios: No Positions. Our Lazy & Hedged Lazy Portfolios maintain the follow positions: PGF, XLK, QQQ, QLD, XBI, EPHE,  VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, & EWU.

 

 

The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com .

 
This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest, Dave's Daily blog and the best-selling book author of Create Your Own ETF Hedge Fund, A DIY Strategy for Private Wealth Management, published by Wiley Finance in 2008. A detailed bio is here: Dave Fry.