10 Biotech Stock Predictions for 2012

Update: Please submit your own 2012 biotech stock predictions at the end of this story.

BOSTON ( TheStreet) -- Ten biotech predictions for 2012:

1. The Amgen ( AMGN) strategy of returning cash to shareholders in form of share buybacks, Dutch tender offers and dividends is abandoned in favor of ramped up acquisitions i.e. Gilead Sciences ( GILD) buying Pharmasset ( VRUS). Large-cap biotech firms start acting like Big Pharma -- choosing to buy growth instead of seeking it from internal drug development.

2. After much wrangling, lawmakers pass important PDUFA V legislation but it's amended to prohibit FDA from issuing drug approval decisions on Friday evenings.

3. Cancer immunothera-flop: Phase III cancer "vaccine" studies being run by Merck KGaA and Oncothyreon ( ONTY) (Stimuvax in non-small cell lung cancer) and Vical ( VICL) (Allovectin in melanoma) both fail. The only positive clinical news in cancer immunotherapy in 2012 will come from GlaxoSmithKline ( GSK) with its Mage-A3 therapy, in phase III for melanoma.

4. By the end of the year, one or more of these companies will be gobbled up in an M&A deal: Seattle Genetics ( SGEN), Celgene ( CELG), Biomarin Pharmaceuticals ( BMRN), Amag Pharma ( AMAG), Onyx Pharma ( ONXX), Momenta Pharma ( MNTA)

5. Cell Therapeutics ( CTIC) exits 2012 the same way it started -- with pixantrone still not approved anywhere. The only changes at the company will be to its share count and executive compensation -- both higher; and stock price -- lower.

6. Roche ( RHHBY) doesn't buy Aeterna Zentaris ( AEZS) despite a half-dozen additional Seeking Alpha articles penned by "Jeremy Richards" claiming otherwise.

7. Leucovorin shortages end, so too does Spectrum Pharma's ( SPPI) fairytale ride.

8. Vertex Pharma's ( VTX) cystic fibrosis drug Kalydeco will be approved. More importantly, studies testing Kalydeco combined with other Vertex's cystic fibrosis drugs will show strong benefit in a larger swath of patients. Vertex becomes a cystic fibrosis company. Hepatitis C? What's that?

9. FDA rejects obesity drugs from Arena Pharmaceuticals ( ARNA) and Vivus ( VVUS) for a second time.

10. Celgene ( CELG) will be the best-performing large-cap (market cap greater than $10 billion) biotech stock in 2012.

Happy 2012! If you have predictions of your own for the coming year, please share in the comments section below.

Here's a look back at how well my 2011 predictions fared:

1. Cell Therapeutics will increase its share count to 2 billion, followed by a 60:1 reverse stock split. Pixantrone still isn't approved.

Correct. My numbers were off a bit. Cell Therapeutics didn't bloat its share count quite that high but came close. Pixantrone still not approved.

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