The uptrend for emerging markets may be less impressive, but it exists. The current price of Vanguard Emerging Markets ( VWO) is above its intermediate-term trend as well. (And that means... yes, you may want exposure.)
While stocks have been looking better -- while many risk assets are well above key moving averages (e.g., high yield corporate bonds, REITs, pipeline partnerships, emerging market bonds, etc.) -- there is a critical laggard. Specifically, Commodity ETFs aren't being scooped up. A commodity break-through would lend support to the notion that a bull market is back. Higher commodity prices would signal greater demand from developed economies as well as the developing world. However, bearishness still persists. PowerShares DB Base Metals ( DBB) is still 20% below its July 2011 peak. And its not just the metals. PowerShares DB Agriculture ( DBA) is below its 50-day moving average. In fact, Green Haven Continuous Commodity ( GCC) demonstrates that the trend for aggregate commodity prices is down.
China's erratic stock-market and Brazil's credit-rating downgrade sent investors scurrying from emerging-market exchange-traded funds during the third quarter -- and there's probably further selling ahead.