The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.NEW YORK ( ETF Expert) --Greece might not take the bailout money? Okay, sell everything you've got, including that low-risk Vanguard Utilities Fund ( VPU). Greece is back on board? Very good, then buy Small Cap Australia ( KROO) to profit from the
The uptrend for emerging markets may be less impressive, but it exists. The current price of Vanguard Emerging Markets ( VWO) is above its intermediate-term trend as well. (And that means... yes, you may want exposure.)
While stocks have been looking better -- while many risk assets are well above key moving averages (e.g., high yield corporate bonds, REITs, pipeline partnerships, emerging market bonds, etc.) -- there is a critical laggard. Specifically, Commodity ETFs aren't being scooped up. A commodity break-through would lend support to the notion that a bull market is back. Higher commodity prices would signal greater demand from developed economies as well as the developing world. However, bearishness still persists. PowerShares DB Base Metals ( DBB) is still 20% below its July 2011 peak. And its not just the metals. PowerShares DB Agriculture ( DBA) is below its 50-day moving average. In fact, Green Haven Continuous Commodity ( GCC) demonstrates that the trend for aggregate commodity prices is down.
While I wouldn't advocate jumping the gun on Commodity ETFs, readers should note that I've been talking about China's resurrection since early October. For instance, the Oct. 13 article on
"China ETFs Trampoline Off the Bottom" makes the case that resource-rich nations that export to China will fare particularly well when China eases monetary-fiscal policy. Resource-rich Country ETFs that have eclipsed 50-day trendlines include iShares MSCI Australia Index ( EWA), iShares MSCI South Africa Index ( EZA) and iShares MSCI Malaysia Index ( EWM). Nevertheless, Commodity ETFs will need to join the uptrends soon. Otherwise, skepticism about the sustainability of current bullishness is likely to creep back into the picture.
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