AB Volvo ( VOLVY.PK)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call

October 25, 2011 9:00 am ET


Olof Persson – Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Group Executive Committee

Mikael Bratt – Head of Group Trucks Operations, Member of the Group Executive Committee


Nico Dil – JPMorgan

Fredric Stahl – UBS

Laura Lembke – Morgan Stanley

Yann Benhamou – Exane BNP Paribas

Sebastian Gutale – Société Générale

Declan Carlin – BlueBay Asset Management



Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Volvo Report on the First Nine Months of 2011. Today, I’m pleased to present Mr. Olof Persson, President and CEO. For the first part of this call, all participants will be in listen-only mode and afterwards we have question-and-answer session. Mr. Olof Persson, please begin.

Olof Persson

Thank you very much, and good morning and good afternoon to all of you, and welcome to the third quarter 2011 report. If you please follow me to page 2, but before I start I would like to introduce my colleagues around the table here is Mikael Bratt, CFO; and Christer Johansson, Investor Relations.

So, if you then follow me to page number 2, looking at the sales by region, we can conclude that we have had a good development during the quarter, 15% growth and 22%, if you exclude the currency impact.

You can also see on the right hand side of the slide, the distribution between the different regions. And interesting to see I think is now, we know back to the total of about 50% in the North America and Western Europe. Asia still a major part, but as you can see, South America has grown and become a more and more important part of our sales.

If we then move to page 3, you can then see the sales trend where we’re now heading at the SEK 297 billion, close to SEK 300 billion on a 12 months rolling coming from the SEK 48 billion, two years ago and now we have the SEK 73 billion in the quarter. And you can also see the sales bridge per business area with the truck and CE, which I will come back to a little bit more in detail later. If we take just a few words from buses, we see they are 12%. On the reported, I think it was around 22% if you were excluding the currencies, mainly increases we see here in South America. We have Brazil where it’s a strong market, but there was a part of Asia.

In terms of Western Europe and in U.S. we see headwinds and a slower market, I would say, both on coaches and city buses. Penta, 6% reported 11% if you do the currency adjustment, Penta has done a great job in actually mitigating the very slow both in Europe and in particular in U.S. on the marine side and compensated that with a good growth on the industrial engine side.

Aero, minus 22% reported. If you take out the service businesses that we sold in U.S. and currency to actually a plus 7%, and again there is very well position in the different programs. And for instance, we have now Boeing 787, the Dreamliner, up flying which is a big part of our programs going forward on the engine side there.

If you now follow me to page 4, looking at the operating income on a 12 month rolling SEK 25.5 billion and SEK 5.8 billion in the quarter. And moving swiftly over to the right-hand side where we can see that we now are giving you the information about the FX effect for our business area and you can see that trucks with SEK 0.5 billion to SEK 700 million you see to the right on other is the forward contracts we do have that is reevaluated market to market and is not allocated back to the business area.

All in all SEK 1.8 billion in currency headwinds this month and that means if you translate that into operating margin, it’s actually at 2% operating margin that represent SEK 1.8 billion on the currency headwind.

Page number 5, looking at the operating capital, I think it’s basically good news we have a reasonable very strong third quarter with a SEK 2.2 billion in positive cash flow and we are now on a SEK 18.5 billion on a 12 months rolling. We also have good news in terms of the cash conversion cycle where we now are down to 22 days, we there by can say that we have compared to Q3, ’09 for instance where we have 73 a much better cash efficiency and you can see on the top line inventories in days are flattening out on a stable level, giving also the fact that we have an increase in sales.

I would say that in terms of inventory days that’s something we keep a very, very close eye on giving the uncertainty in the market. Return on capital, you can see that we’re moving from the minus 15 up to the 28, it’s not record level, but it’s a good return that we present now in Q3.

If we then dig on page six, a little bit closer into the trucks you can see the SEK 191 billion almost SEK 200 billion in 12 months rolling and moving our sale from a SEK 30 billion in Q3, ’09 up to SEK 48 billion. And if you look you look at the region by regions you can see on the right hand side of this slide and that we have 18% in Europe, mainly driven by Northern Europe’s long haul business, but also some construction, but very slow growth in the Southern part of Europe.

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