The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.By Win Thin NEW YORK ( BBH FX Strategy) -- Argentina President Fernandez de Kirchner easily won a second four-year term in weekend elections. She won 54% of the votes and avoided a second round vote, with her nearest challenger at 17%. Indeed, a weak and divided opposition helped Fernandez win, as did a booming economy and increased government payouts designed to help offset the negative impact on households of high inflation. But there is a growing feeling that her second term will be rockier than her first. Fernandez will try to maintain the unorthodox mix of policies for as long as she can, and has shown little willingness to more towards orthodoxy during her first term. Troubles will come both internally and externally, with the growing fear that the exchange rate will bear the brunt of adjustment in the coming months. Inflation as measured by state statistics agency INDEC has crept back towards 10% year over year and is widely viewed as understating actual inflation by about half. Yet Fernandez has minimized the political cost of high inflation by tailoring government handouts to the populace that are meant to offset the burden of inflation. Clearly, those measures worked and allowed her to win the presidency again. Economic growth remains robust, with GDP up 9.1% year over year in the second quarter vs. 9.9% year over year in the first quarter. Monthly data so far are pointing to a further slowdown to around 8% year over year in the third quarter. Unemployment is at the cycle low of 7.3% in the second quarter. On the external side, export growth remains strong, averaging 25% year over year in the third quarter vs. 20% year over year in the second quarter. However, we remain concerned that ongoing troubles in the euro zone will continued downward pressure on commodity prices. Argentina's largest trading partner Brazil is undergoing a slowdown too, and so will have some spillover onto Argentine exports and growth. Furthermore, the current account surplus is rapidly falling and the balance is likely to move into deficit as we move into 2012.