The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.By Marc Chandler NEW YORK ( BBH FX Strategy) -- The European debt crisis turns 2 years old. On average there is a crisis management summit a little more frequently than every other month on average. The most concrete and certain thing to emerge from the weekend's summit is that there needs to be at least one more before the Nov. 3 G20 summit, which is a deadline of sorts for a resolution. The rhetoric of a "durable" or "comprehensive" solution again proved more difficult in implementation than in declaration as did similar claims this part March and July. Nevertheless, there has been some important progress over the weekend, and additional developments are likely in the days ahead. > > Bull or Bear? Vote in Our Poll At the same time, we note a frequent pattern in the currency markets in which Monday activity often sees follow-through from Friday, before a consolidative or corrective phase ensues. The euro closed near its recent highs before the weekend, and the pound and Australian dollar made new highs in the recent advance. The developments over the weekend may not stand in the way of this pattern. France appears to have backed down in the face of a German-European Central Bank joint position that strenuously objected to the European Financial Stability Fund becoming a bank to borrow from the ECB. Instead, it appears that the insurance/guarantee function of the EFSF is going to dominate. Although the situation still appears fluid, the momentum seems to favor those who want to have this guarantee function only for new issuance of Spain and Italy. There is another twist that emerged. Alongside the guarantee, the EFSF may set up a special-purpose vehicle, or SPV, that would invest in sovereign bonds and would potentially attract other investors, like sovereign wealth funds. There also seems to have been some progress in the plan to recapitalize European banks. The size of the need is estimated at around 100 billion euros. Banks will have probably until the middle of 2012 to raise the capital on their own, including retained earnings. If that proves insufficient, banks can turn to national governments. Only if that proves insufficient can negotiations be opened with the EFSF.