Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
  • why it's tough for those who are bullish on the European crisis;
  • why Google looks unstoppable right now; and
  • why it's so easy to knock down the Oil Service HOLDRs ETF.

Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.

Perception and Reality

Posted at 3:50 p.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 14.

What I wouldn't do to have a true, two-sided argument about what can happen in Europe. What I wouldn't give to have the consequences for being wrong be equal.

But they aren't.

Consider this: If you say that we will get through this European crisis without much damage and no Lehman-like apocalypse that allows you to make money in U.S. stocks, you will be ridiculed beyond belief if our markets get hit hard on a wrong turn in Europe. You will be pilloried for being a true joker, a cockeyed optimist, a lightweight who didn't understand the gravity of the situation.

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It doesn't matter that you caught one of the greatest moves of many years, this 12% gain off the bottom, because you actually believed that something could work out. These points in the bears eyes are totally illegitimate and not worth the risk of getting.

But the flip side isn't true. It is even easier right now, after a run, to say, "It's all a short squeeze. It's all a canard and a mirage. You just wait until this French bank or that European country collapses and we will be down 1,000, 2,000 maybe 3,000 Dow points."

That mantra can be said over and over, no matter how high we go. It doesn't matter. The bear case never loses its gravitas. It is always right. It is always just about to occur. If the market doesn't go down, it is always "just about to happen." You buy this rally, and you will be crushed.

If we do get a vast selloff after a calamity, you will always be known as a seer, smarter than everyone else. If you run a hedge fund, you will get billions in. If you run an advisory firm, you will be inundated with media requests. You will be a sung hero.

So, if you say that we can rally because the cataclysm won't happen, you are going to be destroyed if it doesn't. But if you say the rally is phony and we are postponing the inevitable, you are never wrong.

As long as there is that asymmetry, it does not pay to be positive.

Too much risk. Better to stay negative, even if it means missing a huge move.

Google Can Do No Wrong

Posted at 6:28 a.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 14.

When you have a quarter as amazing as Google ( GOOG) did last night you can stiff analysts over and over and refuse to tell them anything they want and you can get away with it.

Yep, it was that amazing. Suddenly every initiative is working. Suddenly Google+ looks like it is a serious challenge to Facebook. Suddenly YouTube has become a money maker of some proportion that the acquisition now looks genius. Suddenly we see that Google, which, along with Apple ( AAPL), is dominating the growing smartest phone market, will be boosted significantly by the Motorola Mobility acquisition.

Suddenly we see that there really aren't any other search plays worth mentioning and that Google is on a search rampage. The growth of this business is accelerating. I found myself feeling bad for the other guys and wondering what quarter will produce the mercy killings. Suddenly it appears that other than Apple and Amazon.com ( AMZN) there isn't anyone else out there, and only Google has all three of the trinity: mobile, social and cloud.

It's amazing. Yes, it was that good a quarter. Somehow, oddly, it feels as if it is just beginning. Plus, the business is being managed perfectly, and Larry Page is now Larry Sage. The spending initiatives I was worried about, they are gleeful about shutting them down and streamlining them if they don't work. It's the ideal state of affairs for an incubator.

You don't get a stock up 40 points for nothing. This was about as good a quarter you could have.

No, better.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long AAPL.

Oil-Service Stocks at the Mercy of Weak Owners

Posted at 12:30 p.m. EDT on Thursday, Oct. 13.

We use Brent when we price oil. We use West Texas Intermediate when we value oil-service stocks. That's the only possible takeaway when we can sink to levels on the Oil Services HOLDRs ( OIH) that are back to where we were when Brent was at $105, even though it's hanging around $110. That's because West Texas is weak, and the traders all follow the futures that are based on West Texas.

That's the ETF talking. The OIH is in lockstep with West Texas and has been forever. Oil goes down a buck, these go down more. They are owned by the worst possible holders and can be knocked down with a feather. They have virtually nothing to do with the fundamentals of the industry and everything to do with the silly way stocks now trade.

I like the group because of the stickiness of Brent, which is what the drilling budgets are geared to. But that means I am fact-based, and that has been the kiss of death in this market.

How can any of this be justified? Because there is no more "big money" that stands there and uses the weakness to accumulate. Big money runs for the hills the moment selling begins, and the "buying opportunity" created is quickly ignored.

It's emblematic of the worthlessness of thought that my friend Herb Greenberg talks about. Short-term, of course, because longer-term thought still wills out. But the velocity and ferociousness of the moves makes the long-term almost entirely irrelevant.

Almost no one can stand the pain.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in securities mentioned.

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