- why it's tough for those who are bullish on the European crisis;
- why Google looks unstoppable right now; and
- why it's so easy to knock down the Oil Service HOLDRs ETF.
Perception and Reality Posted at 3:50 p.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 14. What I wouldn't do to have a true, two-sided argument about what can happen in Europe. What I wouldn't give to have the consequences for being wrong be equal. But they aren't. Consider this: If you say that we will get through this European crisis without much damage and no Lehman-like apocalypse that allows you to make money in U.S. stocks, you will be ridiculed beyond belief if our markets get hit hard on a wrong turn in Europe. You will be pilloried for being a true joker, a cockeyed optimist, a lightweight who didn't understand the gravity of the situation. > > Bull or Bear? Vote in Our Poll It doesn't matter that you caught one of the greatest moves of many years, this 12% gain off the bottom, because you actually believed that something could work out. These points in the bears eyes are totally illegitimate and not worth the risk of getting. But the flip side isn't true. It is even easier right now, after a run, to say, "It's all a short squeeze. It's all a canard and a mirage. You just wait until this French bank or that European country collapses and we will be down 1,000, 2,000 maybe 3,000 Dow points." That mantra can be said over and over, no matter how high we go. It doesn't matter. The bear case never loses its gravitas. It is always right. It is always just about to occur. If the market doesn't go down, it is always "just about to happen." You buy this rally, and you will be crushed. If we do get a vast selloff after a calamity, you will always be known as a seer, smarter than everyone else. If you run a hedge fund, you will get billions in. If you run an advisory firm, you will be inundated with media requests. You will be a sung hero.
Google Can Do No Wrong Posted at 6:28 a.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 14. When you have a quarter as amazing as Google ( GOOG) did last night you can stiff analysts over and over and refuse to tell them anything they want and you can get away with it. Yep, it was that amazing. Suddenly every initiative is working. Suddenly Google+ looks like it is a serious challenge to Facebook. Suddenly YouTube has become a money maker of some proportion that the acquisition now looks genius. Suddenly we see that Google, which, along with Apple ( AAPL), is dominating the growing smartest phone market, will be boosted significantly by the Motorola Mobility acquisition. Suddenly we see that there really aren't any other search plays worth mentioning and that Google is on a search rampage. The growth of this business is accelerating. I found myself feeling bad for the other guys and wondering what quarter will produce the mercy killings. Suddenly it appears that other than Apple and Amazon.com ( AMZN) there isn't anyone else out there, and only Google has all three of the trinity: mobile, social and cloud. It's amazing. Yes, it was that good a quarter. Somehow, oddly, it feels as if it is just beginning. Plus, the business is being managed perfectly, and Larry Page is now Larry Sage. The spending initiatives I was worried about, they are gleeful about shutting them down and streamlining them if they don't work. It's the ideal state of affairs for an incubator. You don't get a stock up 40 points for nothing. This was about as good a quarter you could have. No, better. At the time of publication, Cramer was long AAPL.
Oil-Service Stocks at the Mercy of Weak Owners Posted at 12:30 p.m. EDT on Thursday, Oct. 13. We use Brent when we price oil. We use West Texas Intermediate when we value oil-service stocks. That's the only possible takeaway when we can sink to levels on the Oil Services HOLDRs ( OIH) that are back to where we were when Brent was at $105, even though it's hanging around $110. That's because West Texas is weak, and the traders all follow the futures that are based on West Texas.