The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.By Marc Chandler NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The domestic machinations in Slovakia will soon be resolved and passage of the EFSF reforms remains the high probability scenario. The bigger political risk may lay with Italy today. The relationship between Italy's politics and economics is a hotly debated point. When Moody's and S&P downgraded Italy recently (October 4 and September 19, respectively) they cited political instability (as well as rising borrowing costs). Finance Minister Tremonti has suggested Spanish debt has outperformed Italian debt since its PM called for early elections. The problems Italy faces may have deeper roots than simply the current prime minister. It is not clear that the opposition offers a significantly different agenda rather than different personalities. ECB bond buying of Italian debt began in early August and pushed 10-year yields sharply lower, but only for about two weeks. The 10-year yield has risen steadily since dipping below 5% and today is near 5.75%, with a few basis points off its highest since ECB action began. Italy is planning to sell bonds tomorrow. Italy has a heavy supply schedule over the next several months. On the other hand, Italy's 5-year CDS prices hit their lowest level (~409 bp) yesterday since early September. The risk is on the upside. After losing a vote that seemed largely a formality yesterday (approving last year's government balance sheet), Prime Minister Berlusconi is under pressure to hold a vote of confidence. There are press reports suggesting a vote of confidence could be held as early as today following President Napolitano's call on the Prime Minister that he still has a governing majority. Yesterday's vote, a draw, could have been resolved if coalition partner Northern League head Bossi or Finance Minister Tremonti had been present. The fact that they were not has given rise to speculation of a "palace coup" of sorts. The Prime Minister and Finance Minister have been feuding for several months. Most recently they fought over the austerity package and their fighting appears to be delaying the appointment of Draghi's successor as the central bank governor as Draghi moves over to the helm of the ECB.