AlcoaThe average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters is for Alcoa to post a profit of 22 cents a share in the September-ended period on revenue of $6.24 billion. Starmine, citing the trend of downward earnings revisions because of declining aluminum prices, says the SmartEstimate for Alcoa is for earnings of 21 cents a share, a penny miss that translates to a predicted percentage surprise of 4.25%. Alcoa shares have had a tough time of it in 2011, falling nearly 36%. On Oct. 4, the stock plumbed a 52-week low of $8.45, a swift drop of 54% from its peak of the past year of $18.47 on April 8. On Monday, the shares were gaining more than 3% to $10.06 amid a strong rally in the broad market on heightened optimism that Europe will be able to sidestep a sovereign debt crisis. Alcoa, a Dow component, has fallen short of the average analysts' view in three of the past seven quarters, so a slight miss wouldn't exactly be a big shocker. The sell side is fairly optimistic about the stock with 10 of the 17 analysts covering the stock at either strong buy (3) or buy (7) and the 12-month median price target at $15.50.
JPMorgan ChaseAlso a Dow component, Jamie Dimon's banking juggernaut is expected to earn 96 cents a share in the third quarter on revenue of $23.73 billion, but Starmine, citing the unevenness in investment banking business as well as weak equity, debt and capital markets, sees a profit of 89 cents a share, which would be a 6.83% miss. "We expect bank earnings to be weighed down by poor principal trading results, lower NIM forecasts from lower interest rates, and very limited loan growth," said FBR Capital Markets in a research note Monday announcing that it's bringing third-quarter earnings estimates down 3% and fiscal 2012 earnings estimates down 12%. "Some banks will attempt to counteract these headwinds by talking up major cost-cutting measures, but core earnings results will likely be materially lower this quarter for those banks without large mortgage banking operations." FBR Capital is a bull on JPMorgan though, and is well above consensus with its earnings estimate. The firm has an outperform rating but it lowered its earnings estimate to $1.07 a share in the third quarter from $1.39 a share and cut its 12-month price target to $46 from $56. JPMorgan shares are rallying more than 4% to $32.06 on Monday but the stock is down more than 20% so far in 2011. The stock's 52-week low of $27.85 came on Oct. 4, and its 52-week high of $48.36 dates back to mid-February. Even at current levels, JPMorgan shares are still trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $33.04 and $39.95 respectively. The vast majority of Wall Street is still positive on JPMorgan with 32 of the 34 analysts covering the shares at strong buy (13) or buy (19), and the company has a streak of at least eight straight upside surprises on the line when it reports before Thursday's opening bell.
First HorizonMemphis-Tenn.-based First Horizon reports its quarterly results on Tuesday, and the average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters is for earnings of 16 cents a share in the September period on revenue of $359.4 million. Starmine says First Horizon is "benefiting from lower-yield loans, primarily in home equity," and its SmartEstimate is for a profit of 17 cents a share, a potential upside surprise of 5.17%,