AlcoaThe average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters is for Alcoa to post a profit of 22 cents a share in the September-ended period on revenue of $6.24 billion. Starmine, citing the trend of downward earnings revisions because of declining aluminum prices, says the SmartEstimate for Alcoa is for earnings of 21 cents a share, a penny miss that translates to a predicted percentage surprise of 4.25%.
Alcoa shares have had a tough time of it in 2011, falling nearly 36%. On Oct. 4, the stock plumbed a 52-week low of $8.45, a swift drop of 54% from its peak of the past year of $18.47 on April 8. On Monday, the shares were gaining more than 3% to $10.06 amid a strong rally in the broad market on heightened optimism that Europe will be able to sidestep a sovereign debt crisis. Alcoa, a Dow component, has fallen short of the average analysts' view in three of the past seven quarters, so a slight miss wouldn't exactly be a big shocker. The sell side is fairly optimistic about the stock with 10 of the 17 analysts covering the stock at either strong buy (3) or buy (7) and the 12-month median price target at $15.50.