The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.By Marc Chandler NEW YORK ( BBH FX Strategy) -- The Bank of England and the European Central Bank meet this week. There is much speculation that both will alter policy. We suspect there may be disappointment, but disappointment with the BOE could trigger a bounce in the pound while disappointment with the ECB could see the euro sell off. The outcome of the Bank of England's meeting will be known first. Based on the dovish cast to the September BOE minutes and some recent comments, there is speculation that the BOE can resume its asset purchase program with a 50 billion pound purchase over the coming few months. This seems to be the consensus. The risk of disappointment is threefold. First, the September meeting saw only Adam Posen wanting to resume quantitative easing. To go from 8-1 to 5-4 seems like a big shift. The second risk is that the data haven't been too bad, including employment, manufacturing PMI (September) and nonmanufacturing PMI (August). What's more, inflation ticked up in the most recent report (August) from 4.4% year-over-year to 4.5% on the headline. The core rate rose to 3.1% from 3.0%. The headline rate matches the cycle high. The third risk to disappointment is the Bank of England's preference for using the cover of its quarterly inflation report to make such announcements. The next one is due in November. The pound recorded the year's lows, thus far in late September near $1.5330. It bounced into month-end but has run out of steam near $1.5700. The net speculative position at the International Monetary Market switched to short 64,000 contracts in late September from long 11,000 contracts in late August, suggesting short-term momentum players and trend followers have built a substantial short-pound position. Some of this reflects the general dollar strength as a safe haven. The failure of the Bank of England to resume its asset purchases could prompt a bout of position adjustment. We also note that end the end of last week, the pound's 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average for the first time since early September 2010.