German PMI Hits 2-Year Low Despite Beating Expectations; Euro Outlook Bleak

By David Schutz,

German PMI manufacturing came in marginally higher than projected, weighing in at 50.3 to beat the expected mark of 50.0, and deteriorating from August’s 50.9. The projection kept Germany’s toe in the expansion zone, just above the crucial line of 50 which marks the cutoff into contraction. Today’s numbers mark the lowest PMI reading in two years, continuing the downward trend since the PMI reached a high of 62.7 this February. Markit’s spokesperson Williamson blamed the low numbers on reductions in exports and domestic demand, referencing a decrease in export orders which doesn’t bode well for future readings.

Although most euro-region economies performed slightly better than expected, the euro-zone as a whole remained locked in contraction at 48.5, grounded by France and Italy at 48.2 and 48.3, respectively. The UK finished strong at 51.1, beating out the projection of 48.5 while Switzerland crashed at 48.2 after a projection of 50.5 and last month’s 51.7. Despite the decent looking readings the general deterioration being witnessed in the region at present comes at the worst time as officials struggle to find a solution to the EU debt crisis and Greece; a default now being a question of ‘when’ not ‘if’.

In addition, with global growth slowing to an ebb in Q4 2011 and Germany so exposed to these fluctuations through their massive export sector the outlook for the EMUs largest and most robust economy is turning gloomy. Ordinary German citizens have already shown their disgust at sending taxpayer money abroad to bailout their irresponsible neighbors and German FinMin Schaeuble emphasized over the weekend that Germany would make no further contributions to the EFSF. The future for Germany and the entire region does not look good.

The reaction in the euro was muted as investorfocus remains elsewhere. On a longer term basis, however, we seethe euro continuing its declines toward the 1.3000 level beforefinding some support. After consolidating around this psychologicallevel we believe that this move to the downside could extendfurther toward the 1.2000 region, fundamental weakness in euro-areasupports this outlook. For full technical outlook .

Written by David Schutz, DailyFX Research Team
DailyFX is the forex news and research arm of FXCM, Inc (NYSE: FXCM), which provides currency trading and brokerage services and is an advertiser on TheStreet websites. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Dailyfx will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Currency trading involves significant risk of loss. Individual authors may hold positions in the currencies discussed in the article.

Original Article: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2011/10/03/GermanPMI.html

DailyFX is the forex news and research arm of FXCM (NYSE: FXCM), which provides currency trading and brokerage services and is an advertiser on TheStreet websites. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Dailyfx will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Currency trading involves significant risk of loss. Individual authors may hold positions in the currencies discussed in the article.

More from Currencies

Bank of England Holds Rates Steady, But Vote Shift Signals Hawkish Tone

Bank of England Holds Rates Steady, But Vote Shift Signals Hawkish Tone

Bitcoin Today: Prices Close to Flat in Low-Volume Trading

Bitcoin Today: Prices Close to Flat in Low-Volume Trading

Markets Wobble as U.S. Readies More China Tariffs

Markets Wobble as U.S. Readies More China Tariffs

Watch These Two Crypto Experts Fiercely Debate the Future of Regulation

Watch These Two Crypto Experts Fiercely Debate the Future of Regulation

Bitcoin Today: Prices Attempt to Rally Following Early Weakness

Bitcoin Today: Prices Attempt to Rally Following Early Weakness