The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The multiple of "anecdote" is "statistics." Where am I going with this? If you are interested in the smartphone wars, you will note two things about the Android platform and the U.S. market for smartphones in particular. Android took off in the U.S. starting in November 2009 with Verizon's ( VZ) launch of the first Droid model. As of July 2011, a staggering 550,000 Androids were activated world-wide daily. In the U.S. market, the vast majority of Android activations have taken place on two-year contracts, the first of whom are coming due in the next five weeks.
This phenomenon should be far less pronounced in particular in Asia, for the reasons outlined above. Purchase price matters a lot more, and it appears that the Asian gadget psyche may be more in tune with the more complicated Android interface and customization capabilities. Europe may be somewhere in-between North America and Asia in this regard. Google ( GOOG) is not sitting still with Android, and is also on the cusp of the next major software release, 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich, probably here in October and availability by November or so. It appears that Android 4.0, however, may be a less of a step forward when compared to the major step forward that Apple is taking with iOS in going from 4.3.5 to 5.0. If you are skeptic about my assertion in this article -- that Android will lose market share in the U.S. over the next year or two -- conduct a small survey of your own. Ask how many of your Android friends are fed up to the point where they are eager to switch, and then do the same for your iPhone friends. I think you will find that it's not a close call. Furthermore, I think you will find that battery life is the #1 standout on the list of reasons. Bottom line: I think a much larger share of the U.S. market than is usual in a product cycle will leave Android in favor of the iPhone 5, and perhaps even some to BlackBerry's new products or the new Microsoft Phone 7.5 smartphones. At the time of submitting this article to publication, the author was long AAPL, GOOG and RIMM.