Video: How to Trade $1,900 Gold

NEW YORK ( TheStreet ) -- Gold prices were closing in on $1,900 an ounce Monday on rampant safe-haven buying and as Japan threatened to intervene in the currency market.

The rally has defied calls from traders, strategists and experts who are still expecting upwards of a 20% correction.

Gold for December delivery settled $39.70 higher at $1,891.90 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, although trading well off earlier highs. The gold price has traded as high as $1,899.40 and as low as $1,858 while the spot gold price was adding $42.50, according to Kitco's gold index.

Silver prices settled up 39 cents at $43.32 just shy of its early morning high of $44 an ounce. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.14% at $73.90 while the euro was flat vs. the dollar.

Gold prices continued to strengthen Monday as Goldman Sachs ( GS) was the latest investment bank to cut U.S. growth targets for the rest of 2011, to 1% and 1.5% for the third and fourth quarter, respectively. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase ( JPM) and Citigroup ( C) had all cut their growth targets last week.

Also helping gold was news that the Bank of Japan might again intervene in the currency market to help curb a rising yen, which is hurting the country's exports and growth prospects. Whenever governments mess with currencies it reminds investors of the fragility of paper money and helps gold shine as a stable currency.

Although gold prices were still high, they were a far cry from their $30 rally in early trading, which had pushed prices to nearly $1,900 an ounce. George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Capital Markets says that there could be a "re-allocation of assets by portfolio managers if the stock rally lasts and could provide a setback" for gold prices. Most strategists are still clamoring for a big correction.

Tom Winmill, portfolio manager for the Midas Fund ( MIDSX), is looking for a $150 selloff in gold. "I think fundamental information was spooking the stock market so to the same extent if there was positive news there could be a reversal ... for that we need surprising news about growth in the economy and jobs." If stocks stabilize, then there could be a mass rotation out of gold - the anti-fear premium.

For the longer term, Winmill is bullish on gold, arguing that the metal's $300 rally in 5 weeks is just a dress rehearsal of what will happen in the first quarter of 2013 "then I think the gold price could go haywire."

Winmill thinks that Washington's special committee won't be able to come to a deficit reduction deal by the end of 2011 which will trigger broad budget cuts, further debt negotiations and the eventual end of the Bush era tax cuts -- all of which will point to a time of great uncertainty in the market. "This is a walk through ... and that will be a time of massive political impasse and the gold price could go way way up if this market comparison is any indication ... I think gold will serve a psychological need at that time."

Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at Standard & Poor's, also a long-term gold bull, is calling for a correction as well. "Gold is extremely overbought ... Bullish sentiment is at the highest level in over three years ...We think gold could drop into the 1,450 to $1,550 an ounce range in the coming months."

Gold mining stocks rose Friday along with the gold price. Barrick Gold ( ABX) was up 2.3% to $51.97 while Newmont Mining ( NEM) popped 4.3% at $62.68. Other gold stocks, Randgold Resources ( GOLD) and Goldcorp ( GG) were trading higher at $113.80 and $54.10, respectively.

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-- Written by Alix Steel in New York.

>To contact the writer of this article, click here: Alix Steel.
Disclosure: TheStreet's editorial policy prohibits staff editors and reporters from holding positions in any individual stocks.

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