Emerging-Market ADRs: Winners and Losers

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Reversing two straight weeks of gains, emerging-market indices eroded considerable value last week. Brazil's Bovespa shed the maximum of 3% as economists have revised Brazil's 2011 GDP forecast slightly lower to 3.94% from 3.95%. Further, Brazilian banks and retail stocks pulled back on the expectation of higher interest rates. Meanwhile, China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index and India's Nifty slipped 0.4% and 0.3% at close last week, respectively.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones closed on a positive note last week, gaining 1.8% and 2%, respectively. The U.S. equity markets rose last week as Greek lawmakers passed a five-year austerity package, qualifying the country for further aid. Additionally, the latest report from ADP Employer Services shows that U.S. companies added twice as many jobs as forecast in June.

For the week ended July 6, according to data compiled by international fund tracking firm EPFR, the diversified global emerging-market equity funds attracted $1.36 billion. Overall, inflows into the global equity funds aggregated $6.19 billion. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 1.3%, reflecting a third consecutive weekly gain and its longest rally in three months.

India's Nifty closed the week with only two losers. ICICI Bank ( IBN) emerged top decliner shedding 2.6% at close last week as the Reserve Bank of India proposed to cap banks' equity investments in firms, and India's largest lender State Bank of India hiked lending and deposit rates. Meanwhile, Sterlite Industries India ( SLT) nudged 0.8% lower last week.

On the Shanghai Composite Index, stocks from the SOLAR space such as Yingli Green Energy Holding ( YGE) and JA Solar Holdings ( JASO) plunged 14% and 11.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, Canadian Solar ( CSIQ) erased 9%, while LDK Solar ( LDK), Trina Solar ( TSL) relinquished 8.6% and 8.5%, respectively.

With Bovespa led by a major fall in banks and retailers, Companhia Brasileira De Distribuicao ( CBD) was among the top losers, down 5.7% at close past week. Braskem ( BAK) was at the helm of losers, declining 7.9%. Gafisa ( GFA) followed shedding 6.1%. Banking stocks Itau Unibanco Holding ( ITUB) and Banco Bradesco ( BBD) dived 4.2% and 2.4% respectively.

The following stocks are stacked based on last week's gains, least to highest.

5. Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes ( GOL), the largest low-cost airline in Latin America, provides services on routes connecting all Brazilian cities, to other Latin American cities, and select tourist destinations in the Caribbean. The company owns shares either directly or indirectly in five subsidiaries -- VRG Linhas Aereas and four offshore finance subsidiaries. The stock accumulated 5.9% last week.

Of the 12 analysts covering the stock, 67% rated it a buy while remaining suggest a hold. There are no sell ratings on the stock. A Bloomberg consensus expects the stock to gain an average 44.7% to $18.62 in the upcoming 12 months.

Last week, Gol's shares gained on speculation that it would be buying closely held rival Webjet Linhas Aereas. The company said in its filing that it is in talks with Webjet, without disclosing further details. With this deal, Gol will compete with rival TAM, which will be acquired by Chilean airline LAN. An industry analyst believes that, with this acquisition, Gol would gain market share and extinguish competition.

Gol and WEbJet have signed a memorandum of understanding to allow GoI to buy 100% of WebJet capital stock for $61 million. The acquisition will boost Gol's market share to 41% from the current 36%. WebJet serves 16 domestic locations with 1,000 flights per week.

4. TAM ( TAM), a Brazil-based airline company, provides domestic and international air transportation services. The company operates scheduled passenger and cargo transport routes to 42 cities and serves an additional 40 domestic destinations through regional alliances. The stock accumulated 7.5% at close last week.

Of the nine analysts covering the stock, 78% recommend a buy and the rest suggested hold. There are no sell ratings on the stock. A Bloomberg poll expects the stock to gain an average 14.4% to $26.84 in the upcoming 12 months.

Last week, the stock advanced on speculation that Chile's antitrust tribunal will approve LAN's $4.1 billion takeover of TAM. Meanwhile, German regulators have approved the tie-up, raising optimism of a favourable ruling in Chile. LAN and TAM both fly passenger routes to Frankfurt; LAN also has cargo operations in Germany. Besides, TAM has a code-share agreement with the German airline Deutsche Lufthansa.

The merger will create Latin America's largest airline and one of the 10 biggest airline companies of the world.

3. Melco Crown Entertainment ( MPEL) is a developer, owner and operator of casino gaming and entertainment resorts in Macau through subsidiary Melco Crown Gaming. It is among the six companies licensed to operate casinos in Macau. The stock leaped 9.5% last week.

Of the 16 analysts covering the stock, 69% recommend a buy while 25% rate it a hold. A Bloomberg consensus expects the stock to gain an average 2.6% to $14.34 in the upcoming 12 months.

Last week, the company completed the refinancing of its existing credit facilities relating to its projects City of Dreams and Altira. These two properties cover almost $1.2 billion consisting of an amortizing term loan facility for the equivalent of $800 million, and a revolving credit facility for the equivalent of $400 million. Additionally, JP Morgan is bullish on Macau gaming companies and has raised its price target for companies across the board. In June 2011, gaming revenue in Macau soared 52% to $2.6 billion from the year-ago month.

In a separate development, MPEL's efforts in environmental protection have been recognized by multiple awards in 2011. The company's flagship property, City of Dreams, is the First-In-Macau to receive the Indoor Environmental Quality Certification. Besides, the company's three hotels received the 2010 Macau Green Hotel Award.

2. Silvercorp Metals ( SVM) engages in the acquisition, exploration, development and mining of high-grade, silver-related mineral properties in China and Canada. The company operates four silver-lead-zinc mines at the Ying Mining Camp in China's Henan Province. The stock gained 14.8% last week.

Of the five analysts covering the stock, 80% recommend a buy on it. Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect the stock to gain an average 46.7% to $15.79 in the upcoming 12 months.

Last week, the company reported the results of three technical reports updating the resources and reserves at its SGX, HPG and TLP-LM silver-lead-zinc mines in the Ying Mining District in Henan Province, China. The combined proven and probable reserves in the three mines are 58 million ounces of silver, 309,338 tons of lead, and 86,920 tons of zinc, and 16,885 ounces of gold in 6.6 million tons of ore.

Commenting on the reserve update, BMO Capital Markets said that there is potential for further resource upgrades with exploration. Also, it has raised its price target on the stock to $19.29 from $19.18. Separately, the company has updated resources at its Silvertip silver-lead-zinc project in British Columbia, Canada. This 2011 resource update, which is based on 10,913 meters in 36 diamond drill holes completed in fall 2010, estimates 4.17 million tons grading 261 g/t silver (Ag), 4.87% lead (Pb), and 8.50% zinc (Zn), containing in situ 35 million ounces of silver, 203,050 tons of lead, and 354,327 tons of zinc.

1. Rediff.com India ( REDF), along with subsidiaries, provides online internet-based services in India and for the global Indian community. It operates in two segments: India Online business and US Publishing business. Rediff also publishes two weekly newspapers in North America - India Abroad and India in New York. At close last week, the stock leaped 30.5%.

Last week, a report released by Bedford said that improving broadband use in India is boosting the popularity of internet companies like Rediff and Sify Technologies. The research report notes that Rediff saw a significant year-over-year quarterly growth of 25%, topping the industry average of 19%.

The Bedford report adds that Rediff has also rolled out a group service called Rediff Deal Ho Jaye!, a Groupon like service offering consumers the opportunity to discover new local services at discounted prices. These deals will be available in 40 Indian cities.

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