Apple's Smartphone Market Share: Impact on Stock

The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.

NEW YORK ( Trefis) -- The International Data Corporation (IDC) recently came out with a smartphone market forecast report, in which it indicated that Apple's ( AAPL) share in the global smartphone market could decline from 18.2% in 2011 to 16.9% in 2015. This finding is surprising since continuous innovation at Apple makes it a tough competitor to beat in the smartphone market.

The report also suggests that Google's ( GOOG) Android and Microsoft's ( MSFT) Windows Phone 7 operating system (after Nokia ( NOK) transitions to replace Symbian with Windows Phone 7) will gain share while Research In Motion ( RIMM) BlackBerry OS will lose share in the smartphone OS market.

The iPhone accounts for more than 50% of our $430 price estimate for Apple stock, which is about 30% above market price.

IDC expects iPhone sales to show an average growth rate of 18% through 2011 to 2015 compared to an overall smartphone market growth of 20% during the same period. Trefis expects iPhone sales to show an average growth rate of 24% during the same period. In terms of market share, we expect Apple to continue to gain share from around 5% in 2011 to 10% of total market share in 2015 of the mobile phone market.

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This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

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