So this wasn't one current bubble that then burst at that time? Rogers: I hardly see how silver could be a bubble when, even as its top, is still below it's all time high. That's not much of a bubble. A bubble is when things are screaming up every day and they go to new highs, two to three times their old highs. We'll have a bubble, we'll have a bubble in commodities, we're not there yet. What price do you think silver will hit that would make it a bubble? Rogers: Well, it depends on the timing. If it goes to $150 this year, all other things being equal, then I'd say you better sell your silver. If it goes to $150 in 10 years then I would say that's a normal progression up and that's the way things work. But if the U.S. dollar suddenly turns into confetti then you better hold your silver at $200. So it depends on the circumstances and the timing more than anything else. Now talking to a lot of technical traders when they looked at the silver chart, say over the last year, they saw that parabolic rise which made them really think it was a bubble. Also, to your point, we have talked about this before, when you hear people talking on the street about say pork bellies that means we are in a bubble. I heard stories of people talking on the street on their cell phones talking about silver last week hoping it would go higher so they could sell. Rogers: Oh, I was hoping it would go down so I could buy ...I was on some show talking about how this parabolic bubble better stop soon. But Ms. Steel, how many people do you know who actually own silver? I suspect you don't know man y people at all. I spoke recently at a conference
So silver fell 27% last week, was it enough for you to want to buy more? Rogers: Well, I'm too lazy, I'm doing other things right now, but I hope at some time in the next month or two if it goes down or stays down then I will get the energy to go around and buy some more silver, yes. Or maybe it will go to $25, I don't know But you didn't sell anything? Rogers: No, no, no I have not sold any commodities. I protect myself by being short ... in other things. I am nearly always short something. I'm nearly always long something, fortunately my shorts went down too last week. So what are you short versus long? Rogers: Well, I'm short emerging markets and I'm short American technology stocks cause those are two areas of the world stock markets that have been very over-exploited in the past two to three years. They're not great bubbles, they're not great shorts, but they're better shorts than nothing. Then what are you long? Commodities then? Rogers: I'm long commodities, mainly its commodities and currencies. Now you've been saying that there is no oil and that's why oil prices are going up. What did you specifically mean by that? Rogers:Well, there have been no new elephant discoveries in over 40 years. All the great oil fields in the world are in decline now and unless we find a lot of oil quickly then we're not going to have any oil at any price. The International Energy Agency is going around saying "look, the world is running out of known reserves at 6% a year."
Check back for my next Q&A with Jim Rogers on currencies and the fate of the U.S.
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