The following commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet's guest contributor program, which is separate from the company's news coverage.NEW YORK ( Bullion Bulls Canada) -- It becomes more and more difficult to discuss U.S. employment "statistics," since an ever greater percentage of what is presented is simply total fabrication. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) might as well abbreviate its name to "Bureau of LieS" as none of the reports it produces bears any resemblance to the real world. To this mountain of fiction we can now add the "ADP" monthly-payrolls report. This statistic is supposed to be beyond manipulation, as its data-stream comes directly from the payrolls of U.S. employers. However, look at "the fine print" and we will see that its report represents the data of less than 1/6th of total employment. When the reporting excludes 85% of the U.S. economy, it obviously becomes very easy to "stack the deck." As an easy example: the U.S. is (still) embroiled in two (and now three?) wars. With the biggest war-machine in the history of the world, certainly more than 1/6th of the U.S. economy is devoted to simply servicing that war-machine. Thus all that ADP Employment Services needed to do to create a "U.S. economic recovery" is to focus its reporting on U.S. companies which derive a substantial part of their revenues from the U.S. military -- a very long list. Having established that this data-stream could have easily been skewed to the point of total irrelevance, the question then becomes: is there evidence of such fabrication? Fortunately, there remain a few niches of data reporting in the U.S. economy which have not yet been completely "sterilized" by the U.S. government's propaganda-machine. When such data is depicted in the form of long-term charts, those charts paint an irrefutable picture of an economy mired not merely in a "recession," but one which is clearly experiencing a depression. Let's start with the one measurement of the U.S. unemployment rate which is still in the same ballpark as real-world numbers: the "U6" measurement.
First let's look at the overall level. Current U.S. unemployment is about 16% -- nearly double what the U.S. government pretends it to be. Note the tiny improvement from the worst level. The roughly 1% decline in this rate takes it back to where it was when the U.S. government claimed that the U.S. economy had "hit bottom." Let me reiterate this: after two years of a supposed "economic recovery," even using the U.S. government's own data, we see that the unemployment rate has merely equaled the rate at the "bottom" of the so-called recession. Two years of supposed "job creation" has brought the U.S. economy to the same point it was at -- the so-called "bottom." Using the U.S. government's own data, there clearly never was a "recovery". Let's move on to a few more pictures on U.S. employment/unemployment. If we look at "long-term unemployment" in the U.S., we see a chart much like the "U6" unemployment rate. After two years of a supposed "economic recovery", we see U.S. long-term unemployment much, much worse than at any time since the Great Depression -- and no indication of any "recovery."
Equally revealing is a chart on the employment "participation rate" among the U.S. population. As with all Western countries, we see a large climb in this figure which began moving significantly higher in the 1970s, reflecting the integration of large numbers of female workers into our economies. As with many U.S. economic charts, this one "fell off a cliff" when the U.S. Greater Depression began in 2008, and despite two years of an "economic recovery," there has been absolutely no recovery. Participation rates have reverted to what was seen in the U.S. prior to the massive increase in female employment. The U.S. now has both genders wanting to work in an economy which is only supplying enough jobs for one gender. The last of these employment charts shows the massive spike in the payment of unemployment benefits. Again, we see a chart which duplicates the pattern seen in the other charts, but which is derived from a totally separate data-stream. The modest "improvement" here is derived solely from the expiration of benefits, and not from rising employment levels -- and even after this "improvement," payment levels are worse than at any time in the U.S. in recorded history. The only conclusion which can be drawn from the clear picture presented in these charts is that there has never been any "U.S. economic recovery," meaning that the ADP payroll-reports have become nothing but totally fictitious government propaganda (much like the BLS B.S.). Naturally there will remain a large number of trusting "sheep" out there, who steadfastly believe that their government would never lie to them, and thus are convinced I must be "cherry picking" my numbers in some sort of devious manner. My apologies to readers, who have already seen the following chart a few times, but it provides the clearest picture of all.
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