NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:
  • why tech stocks haven't finished their selloff;
  • how to assess the impact of Japan's disaster on some top stocks; and
  • why two investing safe havens don't look safe.

Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.


Tech Is Not Done Going Down

Posted at 3:12 p.m. EST on Friday, March 18.

Some stocks are inherently trading-oriented. There's just not much you can do about it. While they might have some secular tailwinds, there will be moments where you can't own even the best ones -- or at least you have to be willing to trade around them.

That's how I feel about all of these tech names: the optical plays, the tablet plays, the PC plays, even the cloud plays. We are in a quadruple-whammy moment for these. First, they are all seasonally in jeopardy. I have always, always, always paid heed to the seasonality of tech. You want to own tech from August until February. You want to sell tech in the middle of February -- ahead of a traditional summer slowdown. Then you want to buy them back for the back-to-school and holiday season. Periodically, you want to buy something riding a huge secular wave - for instance, Apple's ( AAPL - Get Report) iPhone and iPad iterations. But for the most part, you can't buck seasonality.

Second the implications of Apple winning huge in the tablet wars -- something that seemed inconceivable before the iPad 2 -- have eliminated the single biggest new product cycle story out there: the tablet onslaught. People presumed that the tablet market would be just like the PC market, with lots of players and lots of variety. No one thought it would be like the MP3-player market (a.k.a., the iPod market). The amount of inventory building in the system because of the glut could be staggering. The double-ordering of parts to meet high demand? Take that off the table. Could be disastrous.

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Third, any hopes that the optical equipment world wasn't in inventory-correction mode ended this week with Sanmina-SCI's ( SANM) curiously bad preannouncement. I say curiously bad because while a lot of the shortfall was caused by delayed government orders, a lot of it was communications equipment-related. In other words, the problem, first flagged by Ciena's ( CIEN ) cautious guidance, and then prodded by Finisar's ( FNSR) inconceivably terrible guidance, is now a full blown fiasco.

Finally, Japan. We don't know what is going on with Japan. We do know its centrality to the tech food chain. We are in a shoot-first-ask-questions-later market.

People are shooting first.

So, I don't think the quadruple-whammy is played out. I think it has legs.

I think the stocks go lower.

Hope for a jump Monday so that you don' t have to sell into weakness. Because I don't think we are done going down.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long AAPL.


Factoring Japan Into U.S. Stocks

Posted at 3:51 p.m. EST on Thursday, March 17.

It's so tough to figure out how much of a haircut is enough when it comes to Japan. And at what point is it a positive. For example, Freeport-McMoran ( FCX) gets 20% of its business from Japan, according to a terrific list from Reuters. Is that a positive? If you think that the radiation subsides and the rebuilding begins aggressively, I am calling that a positive. Same with Weyerhaeuser ( WY), which does 10% of its business there. Already established businesses just need to ship more into that market.

But how about Coach ( COH)? The luxury retailer does 20% of its business in Japan, and its stock has gone south from $56 to $51 since the tragedy. I would say that's not enough, as I don't expect a real run on handbags when things get better, and we don't know the real extent of the damage specifically to Coach.

We could say the exact same thing for Tiffany ( TIF), which does 19% of its business in Japan, but its stock has only dropped from $63 to $56. I think there could be more to fall.

Then there is the huge number of tech companies that have exposure to Japan: Molex ( MOLX) at 28% (connectors), Analog Devices ( ADI) at 17%,, Altera ( ALTR) at 16%, Linear Technology ( LLTC) at 14%. Adobe ( ADBE) and KLA-Tencor ( KLAC) at 13%. IBM ( IBM), Corning ( GLW) and Intel ( INTC) at 11%, and Agilent ( A), Autodesk ( ADSK) and Texas Instruments ( TXN) at 10%.

Of these, the only one I was truly interested in buying to begin with after the tablet glut/communication equipment collect/ Apple ( AAPL - Get Report) PC destruction, was IBM. But that's been a total rocket ship. Still, $165 to $154 isn't a gigantic decline. Tempting, though.

If you want to play tech, I think you should be paired. You go long Xilinx ( XLNX) with 9% Japanese exposure, and you sell Altera with 16%, knowing that Xilinx is taking share and has a new product cycle. I think that makes a ton of sense, and you get the Xilinx dividend too.

Here's where I come out: Unless it is part of a reconstructive effort, I would avoid these stocks still. Or if you want to play, hedge the trade: long Xilinx, short Altera.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long AAPL.


Two 'Safe Havens' Have Become Risky

Posted at 1:56 p.m. EST on Wednesday, March 16.

Earlier I said that I thought tech was a sale because, alas, it is too international with too many supply-chain issues and a big hole where Japan was. But amazingly, a couple of other areas are for sale that seem so wrong, but there's no denying that they are being crushed: health care and oil services.

Oil service I can get, somewhat. We have Weatherford ( WFT) saying numbers are being hit by international turmoil. That means that usual suspects like Schlumberger ( SLB) and Halliburton ( HAL) and Baker Hughes ( BHI) are giving up the ghost.

I disagree with the market's judgment on this, even as I think oil can go down to $90 if Bahrain calms down. I disagree because oil is still well above where it pays to drill, and I didn't think anyone would really be surprised that drilling could pause because of Middle East troubles. Doesn't matter -- the market's judgment is being made.

Perhaps the best thing to do is to hang with a hugely domestic player, like Nabors ( NBR - Get Report), which is linked heavily to the new technologies that are being used to extract gigantic amounts of oil from the big shales in Canada and the U.S. We heard last night on "Mad Money" that Continental Resources ( CLR) is ramping up its drilling program, and it is not alone. Everyone has a desire to drill for more oil unconventionally, and Nabors will do very, very well. So go against the grain with that one.

Health care? Anything but healthy. I cannot believe how not a safe haven this area has become. In fact, it is toxic. I am watching Johnson & Johnson ( JNJ) and Merck ( MRK) rolling over. I am seeing the health care maintenance and pharmacy benefit managers getting whacked. The generics? Oh man, take a look at the terrible action in Teva Pharmaceutical ( TEVA).

These two areas should be places to run to now. There are no certainties in Bahrain, and as long as things are shaky, you want some oils, particularly drillers. Health care? Used to be a lay-up trade when numbers are coming down for the big industrials. Just like everything else in this strange market, they aren't working.

It's a reminder of just how difficult this market has become to navigate, and we can't forget that the strange action, almost ungame-able, is the real takeaway.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long WFT.

Jim Cramer, founder of TheStreet.com, writes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's RealMoney and runs the charitable trust portfolio, Action Alerts PLUS. He also participates in video segments on TheStreet.com TV and serves as host of CNBC's "Mad Money" television program.

Mr. Cramer graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where he was president of The Harvard Crimson. He worked as a journalist at the Tallahassee Democrat and the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, covering everything from sports to homicide before moving to New York to help start American Lawyer magazine. After a three-year stint, Mr. Cramer entered Harvard Law School and received his J.D. in 1984. Instead of practicing law, however, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he worked in sales and trading. In 1987, he left Goldman to start his own hedge fund. While he worked at his fund, Mr. Cramer helped start Smart Money for Dow Jones and then, in 1996, he founded TheStreet.com, of which he is chairman and where he has served as a columnist and contributor since. In 2000, Mr. Cramer retired from active money management to embrace media full time, including radio and television.

Mr. Cramer is the author of " Confessions of a Street Addict," "You Got Screwed," "Jim Cramer's Real Money," "Jim Cramer's Mad Money," "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life" and, most recently, "Jim Cramer's Getting Back to Even." He has written for Time magazine and New York magazine and has been featured on CBS' 60 Minutes, NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams, Meet the Press, Today, The Tonight Show, Late Night and MSNBC's Morning Joe.