It was time for a good oversold short squeeze and we got it today. Wednesday's large selloff took the McClellan Oscillator to sub -60 readings; the VIX nearly broached the fear level of 30; and, daily RSIs in some sectors also pushed below 30 meaning more oversold conditions. The initial stimulus for today's rally came from FedEx which actually reported results that missed, but gave a cautiously positive forecast. The stock rallied 5% on the news initially. Jobless Claims also fell just matching expectations; headline CPI was up .5% (I refuse to report the bogus "core" rate); Industrial Production was a large miss lower (-.1% vs. +.5%); Leading Indicators missed expectations (.8% vs 1% expected) but the Philly Fed knocked the cover off the ball with a reading of 43.4 vs 28 expected. Little noticed by bulls was the huge rise in prices that will surely be noted in the next PPI report. The Fed tossed-in another $7B in POMO to grease the trading desks and "wink-wink" they know what they're supposed to do with that cash. As to problems with Japan and MENA, bulls just put those aside for today. Also options expiration is at hand and can add significantly to volatility. And, what the hell, it is St. Patrick's Day after all! So let's put our worries aside and rally. Volume was still high but about 45% lower than Wednesday. Breadth was positive but moderately so. You can follow our pithy comments on twitter and join the conversation on facebook. Continue to U.S. Sectors, Stocks & Bonds
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The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term. The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise. Continue to Concluding Remarks
There seems to be some success with the reactor according to the BBC which is good news. This may relieve some tension and worry. There's still the MENA issues at hand and possible airstrikes, which if they occur, would appear late as Gadhafi is closing the noose around the rebels. In the meantime, another series of protest could occur in Saudi Arabia after Friday prayers and the crackdown in Bahrain intensifies. A lot of event risk remains in the news and stock prices. Economic news is mixed. While good reports on Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed please inflation pressures are building no matter how officialdom deny it. Long-term, Japan will recover given their strong and resolute culture. In the short to intermediate term a large economy is in shutdown mode hurting earnings, employment and the global economy. Friday is options and futures expiration and it's impossible to say how this will affect markets. The Fed is going to announce its bank dividend policy. When done on a Friday, it no doubt will be market friendly. Letâ¿¿s see what happens. You can follow our pithy comments on twitter and join the conversation on facebook. Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: EFZ, EUM, EEV, GLD, SLV, VT, MGV, BND, BSV, VGT, VWO, VNO, IAU, DJCI, DJP, VMBS, VIG, ILF, EWA, IEV, EWC, EWJ, EWG, EWU, BWD, GXG, THD, AFK, BRAQ, CHIQ, TUR, & VNM The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com .