Snowbound Investors: Dave's Daily

Did it snow in Portugal, or was their bond auction just a snow job? Bill Gross opined that recent eurozone bond sales aren't auctions but prearranged sales with much put back to the ECB.

In short, the ongoing micro-managed market by global central banks continues, cheered on by talking heads and with little volume.

Agricultural commodities rallied on bullish crop reports and oil rallied sharply. (No worries about this since food and energy are just not in the inflation data. Whew!)

Other commodities rallied as well and the dollar fell with Portugal's bond sale.

Wells Fargo raised its recommendation on its own bank group suggesting more dividends in store. (It's becoming too easy to make this stuff up!)

The Fed Beige Book reported continuing growth that was "encouraging" despite a depressed housing market and noting producers are paying much more for materials. The latter will be inflationary, but like most things, worried about down the road.

Sure, the snow storm forced many in the east to stay home but we're all connected now aren't we? Anyway volume was again holiday light while breadth per the WSJ was quite positive.

Continue to U.S. Sectors, Stocks & Bonds

Continue to Currency & Commodity Markets

Continue to Overseas Markets & ETFs

The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.

The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

Continue to Concluding Remarks

"I object to a monopolistic bank sure to favor the rich and those in proximity to its offices. The Federal government has no power to charter a corporation. If permitted to breach its constitutional limits, it might take possession of a boundless field of power, no longer susceptible to any definitions."  James Madison 1791

We've never seen QE like this before and it's making an impact on conventional technical analysis--as in steamrolling most indicators. I see it in the charts and most portfolio managers are married to be long anyway.

Major market indices are overbought on daily and weekly charts. But as long as volume remains light and the Fed keeps priming the pump, stocks can and will inflate. Who are we to stand in the path of this?

Let's see what happens. You can follow our pithy comments on twitter and become a fan of ETF Digest on facebook.

 

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: UUP, IAU, SLV, DBA, DBB, USL, EWA, EWC & FXI.

 

The charts and comments are only the author's view of market activity and aren't recommendations to buy or sell any security.  Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period.  Chart annotations aren't predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author's opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com .

 

This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

Dave Fry is founder and publisher of ETF Digest, Dave's Daily blog and the best-selling book author of Create Your Own ETF Hedge Fund, A DIY Strategy for Private Wealth Management, published by Wiley Finance in 2008. A detailed bio is here: Dave Fry.

More from ETFs

What Bad Weather? Kohl's Shares Spike as Same-Store Sales Jump

What Bad Weather? Kohl's Shares Spike as Same-Store Sales Jump

Listen: Here's What You Need To Know About ETFs Today (Hint: They're on Fire!)

Listen: Here's What You Need To Know About ETFs Today (Hint: They're on Fire!)

Bitcoin Today: Bears Rear Their Heads as Prices Continue Downward Spiral

Bitcoin Today: Bears Rear Their Heads as Prices Continue Downward Spiral

Cannabis Stocks Are Screaming Sells After Seeing This Deal: Doug Kass Insider

Cannabis Stocks Are Screaming Sells After Seeing This Deal: Doug Kass Insider

60 Seconds: What's the Difference Between an ETF and a Mutual Fund?

60 Seconds: What's the Difference Between an ETF and a Mutual Fund?