10 Midwest Bank Stocks Poised for the Recovery

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- With growing evidence of a budding economic recovery in the Midwest states, investors should consider a regional banking play as part of a long-term growth strategy.

Two examples of winning Midwest bank holding companies are Huntington Bancshares ( HBAN) of Columbus, Ohio, whose investors enjoyed an 89% total return during 2010 and Commerce Bancshares ( CBSH), which has seen its shares return 15% since the company was featured as part of the Best In Class series in August.

With car sales rebounding and Creighton University's Economic Forecast Group reporting that Mid-America should experience "healthy growth for the first half of 2011" we may well be looking at a slew of improved economic reports over the next year.

This is the perfect time to look at bank stocks that might be excellent recovery plays for the Midwest.

Between the acres of the rye,
With a hey, and a ho, and a hey nonino,
These pretty country folks would lie,
In the spring time, the only pretty ring time,
When birds do sing, hey ding a ding, ding;
Sweet lovers love the spring.

William Shakespeare - It was a Lover and his Lass.

If we look only at 2011 consensus earnings estimates among analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, many high quality Midwest bank names appear fully valued. For example, Huntington trades at 15 times the 2011 earnings estimate and MB Financial at 25 times earnings.

However, if we consider a longer investment horizon, there are 10 actively traded regional names trading for 12 times their 2012 earnings estimates or less.

Using data supplied by SNL Financial for the 202 publicly traded bank and thrift holding companies headquartered in 12 Midwestern states -- excluding those traded on the Pink Sheets -- we narrowed down the list to names meeting the forward P/E criteria for 2012 with three-month average daily trading volume of at least 50,000 shares.

Here they are in descending order by forward P/E based on the 2012 consensus. For the cheapest ones by that measure, investors need to beware of a higher level of risk. Another issue to consider is that seven out of the 10 names still owe bailout money to the government that was received through the Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP.

Terms

For each of the 10 banks discussed on the following pages, we'll be looking at capital strength, earnings quality and asset quality. For an explanation of those terms you can click on the box below.

10. KeyCorp

Company Profile

Shares of KeyCorp ( KEY) of Cleveland closed at $9.06 Monday, for a 1-year total return of 64% as its core earnings performance improved dramatically.

While the company has been cited by analysts as a takeover target, CEO Henry Meyer has indicated that KeyCorp sees itself as an acquirer amid the consolidation of smaller community banks.

On Monday, First Marblehead Corp. announced the completion of its purchase of KeyCorp's Tuition Management Systems unit, along with certain liabilities, for about $47 million in cash.

Income Statement

Third-quarter net income attributable to common shareholders was $178 million, or 20 cents a share, improving from a net loss to common shareholders of $1.36 billion, or $2.14 a share during the third quarter of 2009.

The provision for loan losses was $94 million during the third quarter, declining from $678 million a year earlier. Since third-quarter net charge-offs - loan losses less recoveries -- totaled $357 million, KeyCorp's earnings were boosted by a $263 million reserve release.

A significant achievement for the company was a tax-adjusted net interest margin of 3.35% for the third quarter, increasing from 2.80% a year earlier, as the company continued to improve its deposit mix by reducing CD deposits while gathering more low-cost checking deposits.

KeyCorp was included among TheStreet's 10 Banks With Real Earnings Improvement because its pre-provision net revenue increased to $378 million during the third quarter, from $85 million a year earlier, with a significant increase in noninterest revenue and a corresponding decline in noninterest expenses.

The company's return on average assets (ROA) for the third quarter was 0.90% -- second-highest among this group of 10 Midwest banks.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were $94.1 billion as of September 30, and the nonperforming assets ratio was 2.13%. The net charge-off ratio for the third quarter was 2.54% and reserves covered 3.55% of total loans as of September 30.

KeyCorp owes $2.5 billion in TARP money, although, its capital ratios are strong. The Tier 1 leverage ratio was 12.53% and the total risk-based capital ratio was 18.22%. According to SNL Financial, the tangible common equity ratio was 8.00% -- the highest among this group of 10 Midwest banks.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade for 1.1 times tangible book value and 17 times the consensus 2011 earnings estimate of 53 cents a share, among analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. The forward price-to-earnings ratio declines to 12, based on the 2012 consensus earnings estimate of 73 cents a share.

Analyst Ratings

Based on the stock's low valuation to KeyCorp's book value, it's clear that investors are waiting for the company to finally get past its elevated credit expenses. Out of 24 analysts covering the company, three have buy ratings, 17 rate the shares a hold and four recommend investors sell the shares.

Jeff Davis of Guggenheim Securities is among the believers in KeyCorp, with a buy rating and a $10 price target, saying in a report on November 19 that his target "assumes gradually improving fundamentals could support a better valuation, as could acquisition speculation." He added that "ultimately we view consolidation in the industry, including KEY, as inevitable."

9. MainSource Financial Group

Company Profile

Shares of MainSource Financial Group ( MSFG) of Greensburg, Ind. closed at $10.53 Monday, returning a remarkable 122% over the previous year. The stock has gotten ahead of analysts, as the consensus target price of $7.83 would be a 26% decline.

Income Statement

Net income to common shareholders for the third quarter was $3.8 million, or 19 cents a share, increasing from $625 thousand, or 3 cents a share, a year earlier. The main factor in the year-over-year earnings improvement was a reduction in the provision for loan losses to $7 million from $13.5 million.

The third-quarter net interest margin was a healthy 4.14%, increasing from 3.83% a year earlier. The third-quarter ROA was 0.64%.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were 2.9 billion as of September 30 and the nonperforming assets ratio was 3.14%, compared to 3.38% a year earlier. The third-quarter net charge-off ratio was 1.37% and reserves covered 2.45% of total loans as of September 30.

The company is strongly capitalized with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 9.48% and a total risk-based capital ratio of 16.12% as of September 30. MainSource Financial owes $57 million in TARP money. The company's tangible common equity ratio was 6.59% as of September 30, according to SNL Financial.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade for 1.2 times tangible book value according to SNL and 17 times the consensus 2011 earnings estimate of 63 cents a share. The forward P/E drops to 11, based on the 2012 consensus earnings estimate of 92 cents a share.

Analyst Ratings

All five analysts covering MainSource Financial rate the shares a hold. After the company announced its third-quarter results, Daniel Cardenas of Howe Barnes Hoefer & Arnett said in a report that the company's credit issues "appear to have moderated but remain elevated," and with the run-up in the stock price, the shares "appear fairly valued."

8. MB Financial

Company Profile

Shares of MB Financial ( MBFI) of Chicago closed at $18.10 Monday, down 8% over the previous year.

MB Financial has purchased six failed institutions from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. over the past two years, including New Century Bank and Broadway Bank - two of the seven Illinois banks that failed on April 23. The company had previous acquired pieces of Corus Bank, which was shuttered by regulators in September 2009.

Income Statement

The company reported a third-quarter net loss to common shareholders of $5.4 million, or 10 cents a share, compared to net income to common shareholders of $4.9 million, or 12 cents a share a year earlier, which included acquisition-related gains of $10.2 million. The loss in the most recent quarter reflected a $65 million provision for loan losses, increasing from $45 million a year earlier.

MB Financial's third-quarter net interest margin was 3.92%, increasing from 2.85% a year earlier.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were $10.6 billion as of September 30 and the nonperforming assets ratio was 4.26%, rising from 3.65% the previous quarter and 2.19% a year earlier. Third-quarter net charge-offs totaled $65 million, or an annualized 3.81% of average loans and loan loss reserves covered 2.83% of total loans at the end of the quarter.

The company owes $196 million in TARP money. Its regulatory capital ratios were strong, with a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 10.38% and a total risk-based capital ratio of 15.12% as of September 30. The tangible common equity ratio was 7.02% according to SNL Financial.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade for 1.4 times tangible book value and 25 times the 2011 consensus earnings estimate of 73 cents a share. The forward P/E is 11 based on the 2012 consensus earnings estimate of $1.68 a share.

Analyst Ratings

Out of 13 analysts covering the shares, five rate MB Financial a buy, seven have hold ratings and one analyst recommends investors sell the shares.

Peyton Green of Sterne Agee has a buy rating on MB Financial with a $20 price target, saying in October after the company announced its third-quarter results that the company was "ahead of the curve" in setting aside loan loss reserves.

7. Huntington Bancshares

Company Profile

As detailed in TheStreet's Winners & Losers among bank stocks for 2010, Huntington Bancshares was one of two components of the KBW Bank Index to see its shares rise 89% during 2010. The other was Zions Bancorporation ( ZION).

Huntington's latest achievement was its full repayment of $1.4 billion in TARP money on December 22, following a $920 million capital raise the previous week, which CEO Stephen Steinour discussed in an exclusive Q&A with TheStreet.

Income Statement

Third-quarter net income to common shareholders was $71.5 million, or 10 cents a share, compared to a net loss to common shareholders of $166.2 million, or 33 cents a share, a year earlier, with the main improvement coming from a reduction in the provision for loan losses to $119.2 million from $$475.2 million in September 2009. With net charge-offs of $184.5 million during the third quarter, Huntington released $65.3 million in reserves.

The net interest margin during the third quarter was 3.45%, increasing from 3.20% a year earlier. The ROA was 0.77%.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were $53.3 billion as of September 30 and the NPA ratio was 2.23%, improving from 4.53% a year earlier. The net charge-off ratio for the third quarter was 1.95% and reserves covered 3.50% of total loans as of September 30.

As of September 30, Huntington's Tier 1 leverage ratio was 10.54% and its total risk-based capital ratio was 15.08%. The tangible common equity ratio was 6.05% according to SNL Financial, and the company estimated the TEC ratio would be 7.86% after the capital raise and TARP repayment were completed.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade for 1.6 times tangible book value according to SNL Financial and 15 times the consensus earnings estimate of 47 cents a share for 2011. The forward P/E declines to 11, based on the consensus 2012 earnings estimate of 66 cents a share.

Analyst Ratings

Half of the twenty analysts covering Huntington Bancshares rate the company a buy, while seven have hold ratings and three feel that investors should run for the hills after the spectacular recovery of the shares during 2010.

6. First Busey Corporation

Company Profile

Shares of First Busey Corporation ( BUSE) of Champaign, Ill. closed at $4.78 Monday, up 27% over the previous year. Based on a quarterly payout of 4 cents, the shares have a dividend yield of 3.35%.

The company on December 31 raised $85.9 million in new capital through the sale of $54 million in common shares and $31.9 million in convertible preferred shares to institutional and private investors.

Income Statement

Third-quarter net income to common shareholders was $12.1 million, or 18 cents a share, compared to a third-quarter 2009 loss of $298.6 million, or $8.34 a share, which reflected a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $208.2 million and a $197.5 million provision for loan loss reserves. The third-quarter 2010 provision declined to $31.7 million.

The net interest margin for the third quarter was 3.64%, increasing from 3.05% a year earlier, and the ROA for the third quarter was 0.67%.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were $3.5 billion as of September 30 and the nonperforming assets ratio was 2.50%, improving from 4.71% a year earlier. The third-quarter net charge-off ratio was 2.87% and loan loss reserves covered 3.30% of total loans as of September 30. The company owes $100 million in TARP money.

Brian Martin of FIG Partners said in a report that the holding company's pro forma tangible common equity ratio after its latest capital raise would be an estimated 7.8% as of December 31 and that the capital raise was "for purely offensive purposes," adding that his firm expected acquisitions to play a vital role in future growth given limited opportunities to expand market share in the downstate markets where BUSE already possess a dominant share.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade for 1.6 times tangible book value according to SNL Financial and 17 times the 2011 consensus earnings estimate of 28 cents a share. The forward P/E drops to 11, based on the 2012 consensus earnings estimate of 45 cents a share.

Analyst Ratings

Out of six analysts covering First Busey, four rate the shares a hold and two recommend selling the shares.

5. TCF Financial

Company Profile

Shares of TCF Financial ( TCB) of Wayzata, Minn. closed at $14.84 Monday, returning 10% over the previous year.

Before the new regulations requiring banks only to provide expensive overdraft protection on ATM and debit card transactions to customers who opted-in for the service, TCF led U.S. bank holding companies with at least $10 billion in total assets, with over 25% of its second-quarter operating revenue coming from service charges on deposit accounts. These charges totaled $79 million during the second quarter, and with the new rules effective for only half of the third quarter, TCF's service charges on deposit accounts declined by 11% to $69.9 million for the third quarter.

Another major concern for the company is the Federal Reserve's coming rules resulting from the Durbin Amendment to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

The Durbin Amendment applies to debit card issuers with over $10 billion in assets and is meant to limit transaction processing fees charged by the issuers to fees that are "reasonable and proportional to the actual cost" of processing. TCF sued the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in October, saying that the interchange fees it would be allowed to charge under the new rules would be between 5% and 20% of the current rates.

SNL Financial reported that during an investor conference in October, TCF CEO Bill Cooper referred to "a rain of crap in the retail banking world" when discussing the Federal Reserve's overdraft rules and the FDIC's guidance on overdraft programs.

When asked about M&A possibilities at a conference in November, Cooper said that TCF Financial had stayed away from FDIC-assisted purchases of failed banks because "I don't trust the government to do what they promise," and also that his company could wind up being a seller. "If somebody comes in and offers us a really good deal, we'd sell the bank," he said, according to SNL.

Income Statement

Third-quarter net income to common shareholders was $36.9 million, or 26 cents a share, improving from $17.5 million, or 14 cents a share during the third quarter of 2009. The year-over-year earnings improvement sprang from a reduction in the provision for loan losses to $59.3 million from $75.5 million, and a lowering interest expense to $67.4 million from $77.5 million.

The third-quarter net interest margin was 4.12%, improving from 3.92% a year earlier. The third-quarter ROA was 0.84%.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were $18.3 billion as of September 30 and the NPA ratio was 3.10%. The third-quarter net charge-off ratio was 1.58% and reserves covered 1.70% of total loans as of September 30.

The company redeemed its TARP preferred shares in April 2009. The Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8.11% and the total risk-based capital ratio was 12.73% as of September 30. The tangible common equity ratio was 7.39% according to SNL.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade for 1.6 times tangible book value according to SNL and 14 times the consensus 2011 earnings estimate of $1.07 a share. The forward P/E drops to 11, based on the 2012 consensus earnings estimate of $1.41 a share.

Analyst Ratings

Six of the 20 analysts covering TCF Financial rate the shares a buy, while 12 analysts have hold ratings and two recommend selling the shares. On December 17, KBW analyst Eileen Rooney lowered her 2011 EPS estimate for TCF to 83 cents a share from 95 cents and her 2012 estimate to 95 cents from $1.20, saying that the Federal Reserve's proposal on interchange fees was "more onerous than expected." Rooney maintained her Market Perform or neutral rating on the shares, with a $13 price target.

4. Fifth Third Bancorp

Company Profile

Shares of Fifth Third Bancorp ( FITB) of Cincinnati closed at $14.78 Monday, returning 52% over the previous year.

The company was included among the winners of TheStreet's 2010 Bank Stock Awards for "best projected earnings improvement" for 2011, among actively traded banks achieving an ROA of at least 0.50% during the first three quarters of 2010.

On December 7, CEO Kevin Kabat said in an investor presentation - which was also included in an SEC filing -- "TARP capital is not needed by Fifth Third," that the company's "strong results provide a foundation for discussions with the Federal Reserve" about TARP repayment and that after repaying TARP, the company would "intend for all capital ratios to immediately meet or exceed" the fully-phased-in Basel III requirements.

Income Statement

Third-quarter net income available to common shareholders was $175 million, or 22 cents a share, compared to a loss of $159 million, or 20 cents a share a year earlier. The year-over-year earnings improvement mainly resulted from a lowering of the provision for loan losses to $457 million from $952 million.

Fifth Third's net interest margin improved to 3.70% during the third quarter from 3.43% a year earlier. The third-quarter ROA was 0.85%.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were $112 billion as of September 30, with a nonperforming assets ratio of 2.74%, improving from 4.03% a year earlier. During the third quarter, Fifth Third sold or transferred to held-for-sale (with associated write-downs) $1.2 billion in loans, including $899 million that were not performing.

The third-quarter net charge-off ratio was a high 4.85%, reflecting the company's aggressive moves to trim problem loans, but this is most-likely a temporary spike in charge-offs. With reserves covering a high 4.06% of total loans as of September 30, it would appear that Fifth Third will follow the pattern for the largest U.S. banks over coming quarters, with an earnings boost from the release of reserves.

The company owes $3.4 billion in TARP money, and reported a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 12.54% and a total risk-based capital ratio of 18.28% as of September 30. The tangible common equity ratio was 7.06% according to SNL Financial.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade for 1.5 times tangible book value according to SNL and 13 times the 2011 consensus earnings estimate of $1.11 a share. The forward P/E declines to 10, based on the 2012 consensus earnings estimate of $1.44 a share.

Analyst Ratings

Out of 25 analysts covering Fifth Third, seven rate the shares a buy, 15 have hold ratings and three analysts recommend selling the shares.

3. U.S. Bancorp

Company Profile

Shares of U.S. Bancorp ( USB) closed at $26.94 Monday, returning 21% over the previous year.

On Tuesday, the company announced its main subsidiary U.S. Bank, NA had completed its purchase of Bank of America NA's domestic and European securitization trust administration business. Bank of America NA is the main banking subsidiary of Bank of America ( BAC). U.S. Bancorp said it had acquired "approximately 2,153 active securitization and related transactions, more than 2.4 million residential mortgage files and 84,000 commercial files, and $1.1 trillion in assets under administration," along with $8 billion in deposits. While the press release didn't provide an updated deal price, a previous announcement valued the purchase at "up to $35 million."

Income Statement

Third-quarter net income to common shareholders was $871 million, or 45 cents a share, improving from $583 million, or 30 cents a share a year earlier. The provision for credit losses declined to $995 million in the third quarter from $1.5 billion a year earlier.

The third-quarter net interest margin was 3.91%, improving from 2.67% in the third quarter of 2009 and the third-quarter ROA was 1.25% -- by far the strongest earnings performance among this group of 10 Midwest banks.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were $291 billion as of September 30 and the NPA ratio was 2.14%, improving from 2.33% a year earlier. The third-quarter net charge-off ratio was 2.04% and reserves covered 2.67% of total loans.

U.S. Bancorp repaid its TARP preferred shares in June 2009. As of September 30, the company's Tier 1 leverage ratio was 9.02% and its total risk-based capital ratio was 13.31%. The tangible common equity ratio was 5.98% according to SNL Financial.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade for 3.1 times tangible book value according to SNL Financial, reflecting the market's perception of U.S. Bank as a paragon of stability through the credit crisis. More importantly, the shares do not appear to be overvalued against earnings. The forward P/E is 13 based on the 2011 consensus earnings estimate of $2.13 a share, falling to 10, based on the consensus 2012 earnings estimate of $2.63 a share.

Analyst Ratings

Sentiment for U.S. Bancorp is strong, with 17 out of 27 analysts covering the company rating its shares a buy. Eight analysts recommend holding the shares and two recommend selling.

2. First Merchants Corp.

Company Profile

shares of First Merchants Corp. ( FRME) of Muncie, Ind. closed at $9.17 Monday, returning 55% over the previous year.

Income Statement

Third-quarter net income to common shareholders was $765 thousand, or 2 cents a share, compared to a loss of $6.4 million, or 30 cents a share a year earlier, when a $24.2 million provision for loan losses was partially offset by $5.2 million in securities gains.

The provision declined to $10.5 million during the third quarter of 2010, but was still at an elevated level.

The third-quarter net interest margin was 3.93%, improving slightly from 3.83% a year earlier. The third-quarter ROA was 0.16%.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were $4.2 billion as of September 30 and the NPA ratio was 2.91%, declining from 3.35% a year earlier. The third-quarter net charge-off ratio was 1.84% and loan loss reserves covered 2.86% of total loans as of September 30.

First Merchants Corp. owes $116 million in TARP money, and recorded a $10 million gain when it converted $46.4 million from preferred to trust-preferred shares in July. The gain was recorded because the 5% coupon on the TARP trust-preferred shares - same as the TARP preferred shares - was considerably lower than the company would have been forced to pay if it sold trust-preferred in the open market.

The Tier 1 leverage ratio was 9.66% and the total risk-based capital ratio was 15.52% as of September 30. The tangible common equity ratio was 5.95% according to SNL Financial.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade just below tangible book value according to SNL and 18 times the consensus 2011 earnings estimate of 50 cents a share. The forward P/E drops to 8 based on the 2012 consensus estimate of $1.14 a share.

Analyst Ratings

Out of five analysts covering First Merchants, one rates the shares a buy, while the remaining analysts all recommend investors hold the shares.

1. Citizens Republic Bancorp

Company Profile

Shares of Citizens Republic Bancorp ( CRBC) of Flint, Mich. closed at 66 cents Monday, declining 4% over the previous year.

The company is operating under a July agreement with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Michigan Office of Financial and Insurance Regulation, requiring Citizens Republic to submit plans to improve its capital strength, asset quality and risk management and assess the quality of its management.

Income Statement

The company reported a third-quarter net loss to common shareholders of $68 million, or 17 cents a share, compared to a loss of $62.1 million, or 49 cents a share, a year earlier. The third-quarter provision for loan losses was $89.6 million, increasing from $77.4 million a year earlier.

During the third quarter, Citizens Republic's net charge-offs included $18.1 million resulting in a transfer of "certain nonperforming mortgages" to held-for-sale. The company said it was expecting to sell these loans in bulk during the fourth quarter.

Balance Sheet

Total assets were $10.6 billion as of September 30 and the nonperforming assets ratio was 3.87%, improving from 4.86% in September 2009. The third-quarter net charge-off ratio was 4.91% and reserves covered 4.67% of total loans as of September 30.

Citizens Republic owes $300 million in TARP money and has deferred its last four quarterly dividend payments to the government. The company's Tier 1 leverage ratio was 8.50% and its total risk-based capital ratio was 13.80% as of September 30. The tangible common equity ratio was 5.34% according to SNL Financial - the lowest among this group of 10 Midwest banks.

Stock Ratios

The shares trade for a bit less than half their tangible book value, according to SNL. The consensus among analysts polled by Thomson Reuters is for the company to post losses totaling 21 cents a share for 2011. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is 6, based on the consensus earnings estimate of 11 cents a share for 2012.

Analyst Ratings

Our of the four analysts covering Citizens Republic rates the shares a buy, while the other three analysts recommend investors hold the shares. While Eileen Rooney has a neutral rating on the shares, her $1.00 price target implies 52% upside for new investors.

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-- Written by Philip van Doorn in Jupiter, Fla.

To contact the writer, click here: Philip van Doorn.

To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/PhilipvanDoorn.

To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.

Philip W. van Doorn is a member of TheStreet's banking and finance team, commenting on industry and regulatory trends. He previously served as the senior analyst for TheStreet.com Ratings, responsible for assigning financial strength ratings to banks and savings and loan institutions. Mr. van Doorn previously served as a loan operations officer at Riverside National Bank in Fort Pierce, Fla., and as a credit analyst at the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York, where he monitored banks in New York, New Jersey and Puerto Rico. Mr. van Doorn has additional experience in the mutual fund and computer software industries. He holds a bachelor of science in business administration from Long Island University.

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