PepsiCo: Impact of Gatorade G Series Fit on Stock

NEW YORK ( Trefis ) -- PepsiCo ( PEP) is the world's second largest carbonated soft drink manufacturer and the largest packaged foods product manufacturer. PepsiCo's beverage division competes with Coca-Cola ( KO) in virtually all sub-segments of the beverage market.

We estimate that Pepsi's Gatorade & Other product segment contributes around 17% to our $67.28 price estimate for PepsiCo's stock. Gatorade is the market leader in sports and energy drinks in the U.S. It currently commands a market share of around 15%. This has declined slightly over the past few years due to a fall in consumer spending during the economic downturn resulting in customers turning to cheaper substitutes. However, we anticipate a slight uptick as the economy improves followed by stabilization in the years ahead.

Gatorade's G Series Fit Line Will Target the Calorie-Counting Athlete

Pepsi's Gatorade brand is releasing a new line (G Series Fit) next spring aimed at athletes looking for a lighter taste and lower calorie options, including distance runners and triathletes. This new line will include a low calorie drink, energy bar, and fruit-based protein drink, together suggested to have a retail price of close to $6.50.

Gatorade is targeting a broad distribution network of large convenience and grocery stores for the G Series Fit; comparatively, the company's G Series Pro line was primarily aimed at personal trainers and top-level athletes through specialty distribution channels like GNC and Dick's Sporting Goods ( DKS).

Gatorade has also adjusted the bottle size of the G Series Fit energy drink to cater toward its target demographic. The bottle will be smaller than those of other lines, making it easier to hold while running and allowing it to fit in the holster of an exercise bike.

New Product Line Could Pump Up Gatorade's Market Share, but Stock Upside Limited

The new G Series Fit line, if successful, will position Gatorade to grab market share from the wide demographic of athletes that prefer lower calorie options, or water, during training or competition. However, as Gatorade products only represent 17% of our estimated value for PepsiCo, the market share upside from a new product launch creates limited upside to our price estimate, which already stands about 3% ahead of market value.

Drag the trend-line in the chart below to assess the impact of various Gatorade market share scenarios on PepsiCo's stock value.

See our full analysis of PepsiCo here, including a more extensive breakdown of PepsiCo's Gatorade & Other product segment.

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This commentary comes from an independent investor or market observer as part of TheStreet guest contributor program. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of TheStreet or its management.

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