Best Buy's ( BBY) business has started to pick up in recent quarters as the U.S. economy emerges from recession. However, the country's largest consumer electronics retailer faces fierce competition from low-cost merchandisers like Wal-Mart ( WMT) and Amazon ( AMZN). We see a potential 6% downside to our our $42.03 stock price estimate for Best Buy in the event that the company's revenue per square foot (an important retail metric) fails to grow from current levels during the Trefis forecast period. Our analysis follows below. Best Buy's revenue per square foot for U.S. stores declined during the recession. However, the 2008 bankruptcy of rival consumer electronics retailer Circuit City gave Best Buy a golden opportunity to grab new customers. As consumer demand recovers with the U.S. economy, we expect Best Buy's revenue per square foot to rise steadily over the next few years, from $907 in 2009 to $1,080 by 2016, the end of our forecast period. You can drag the trend-line in the chart above to create your own revenue per square foot forecast for Best Buy and see how it impacts the company's estimated share value.