Aeropostale ( ARO) is a specialty retailer that sells casual apparel and accessories targeted primarily at youth aged 14 to 17. Its primary competitors include American Eagle ( AEO), Abercrombie & Fitch ( ANF), Gap ( GPS) and Urban Outfitters ( URBN). Aeropostale designs, markets and sells its own brand of merchandise through its retail stores and the Internet. The Aeropostale stores constitute around 78% of the $55 Trefis price estimate for Aeropostale's stock. Heavy reliance on marketing and advertising to generate sales could impact Aeropostale's margins in the future. Another risk: As the economy recovers, many customers could trade up to premium brands, hurting Aeropostale's sales and eroding its margins. In this scenario, there could be as much as a 20% downside to our $55 Trefis price estimate for Aeropostale's stock. Our analysis follows below.