The price action, momentum reads, trend analysis and speculative interest levels of recent trade are replicating the market conditions from when Bear Stearns and then Lehman Brothers collapsed and created a run on interbank lending and derivative valuations.The cost of insuring debt and doing daily business is such that in the current environment of questionable global growth, there is no reason to set long-ranging trends that allow price foundations to be set. Instead, the need to balance books and control exposure on a daily basis is front and center, which in turn is feeding the two or three 30-minute candles each day that contain virtually all of the price action in most risk and demand markets. Looking back over the last decade, the pattern of trade has favored a traders' market, which is one that does not generate buy-and-hold profits (a 10-year equity portfolio that tracks the S/P would have lost money from 1999 to 2009). The new generation of global market, by some design but mostly default, is forced to analyze near-term patterns of trade, and get in, get banked and get out before the main reversals take place. There is no way to stop the volatile reversal patterns, not until interbank lending increases, trust is gained between market participants and global growth signals are far stronger than at this point in time.
|Forex Tools |
|Trade Plan of the Day |