Dish Network ( DISH) is the third largest pay-TV provider in the U.S. Dish competes with DirecTV ( DTV), AT&T ( T), Comcast ( CMCSA), Time Warner Cable ( TWC), Verizon ( VZ) and others in the pay-TV market.TV content producers are currently pressuring pay-TV providers to pay higher carriage fees for programming. Recent examples include Dish Network's recent carriage fee disputes with Disney and with a Fox affiliate station in Charlotte, N.C. We can expect these disputes to multiply because many of the contracts between networks and service providers are expiring in 2010. We forecast a minor downside of 1% to our $26.55 estimate for Dish Network's stock if it pays higher carriage fees while simultaneously continuing to offer free HD channels on a promotional basis. On the other hand, we forecast a 4% upside for Dish in the more likely event that the company is able to pass the fee increases on to its subscribers. Our analysis follows below.