BOSTON ( TheStreet) -- Analysts have been more upbeat on company earnings. Investors don't share that sentiment.Apple ( AAPL), State Street ( STT) and other companies have had their earnings-per-share estimates increased by analysts -- one of the biggest catalysts for stocks to rise. Such a disconnect may mean those companies' share prices may get a lift after they publish their earnings reports this week. A total of 122 S&P 500 members will release second-quarter results today through Friday. The problem is, predicting the direction of a stock based on an earnings report is essentially as good as a coin flip. According to information collected during the past nine years by Bespoke Investment Group, a stock has risen in 32,563 instances, or 49.9% of the time, on the day a company reports earnings. Investors may have a better chance of winning at a Las Vegas casino. To improve chances, perhaps, here are the five companies whose share prices are most out of line with analysts' EPS upgrades over the past month. Apple has been bruised because of antenna problems with the company's new iPhone 4 handset. In the span of less than a month, Apple released the iPhone 4 and saw its stock hit an all-time high of $279.01 before dropping back below $250 in early July. Report Date: July 20, after market closes One-Month Price Change: 6% decline One-Month Revisions to EPS: Analysts have increased their EPS targets by an average of 3.4% over the past month, according to Thomson Reuters. Twenty firms, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, have increased their earnings targets, while only five have lowered them. Expectations: On average, analysts predict that Apple will report a quarterly profit of $3.07 a share on revenue of $14.6 billion. When reporting fiscal second-quarter results in April, Apple offered conservative guidance for its fiscal third quarter, as it often does. At the time, Apple said it expects revenue in the range of $13 billion to $13.4 billion on earnings in a range of $2.28 to $2.39 a share. On April 21, the day after Apple reported second-quarter results, the stock jumped 6%.