Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

  • technicians on trial;
  • the end of the D.C. drag; and
  • Google as growth driver.

Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.

Technicians on Trial
Posted at 11:57 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, July 7

Someone forgot to tell the euro about the " Death Cross ." Someone forgot to tell the big banks, like Santander ( STD), about the Death Cross. Someone forgot to tell the major leaders in Europe about the Death Cross.

Looks like the only people who knew of the Death Cross were the short-sellers and their technician acolytes, which is why we can have a summer rally in earnest, until there are more bulls than bears and we are overbought, not severely oversold as we are.

And the best part for the bulls? When we report earnings, the companies won't have to talk about the impact of the dollar, if it grows stronger, or the impact of China, if it gets weaker, because it looks like neither will happen in the timeframe of the conference calls.

That leaves all of those who operate under the assumption that the Death Cross implies a severe breakdown of the S&P will have to cover if the S&P keeps rallying, because, what the heck, they were only short it because the S&P had taken out key levels that will soon be viewed as support. The Achilles' heel of the technicians is that they are negative until the go positive, and vice versa.

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Anyway, you call for a bigger rally, and we get an afternoon selloff, and you look like a moron. That said, right now, the morons may be the people who heard about the Death Cross and then took action on it.

So far, so bad for those who blindly follow charts and not companies as we head into earnings season, for which expectations have already been ratcheted down, and during which Congress takes a vacation and finds out how hated they are, because no one created jobs, and Congress has abetted their destruction and squelched the possibility of any hiring.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

The End of the D.C. Drag on Stocks?
Posted at 2:41 p.m. EDT, Thursday, July 8

If Tim Geithner's got the juice, and his statement on CNBC that capital gains and dividend taxes may stay as low as they are holds water, then we have lost the principal reason to sell stocks, particularly high-yielding dividend stocks. Moreover, any signal, especially one expressed on Larry Kudlow's show on CNBC, that these two rates will remain low is a sign that the Obama administration recognizes that the stock market is far more important than they thought when it comes to the November election. Larry and I fought hard for the dividend tax cut, and people in Washington know that. This signal is very important and cannot be dismissed. Until this interview, I regarded this administration as an opponent of capital and an endless champion of labor, particularly municipal, state and federal workers.

Could it be that the investor class, those brainwashed into using the stock market for savings for retirement and college, has been heard by Obama? Could it be that someone in the White House figured that the indoctrination of the use of stocks, beginning under Reagan and continuing to George W. Bush, has led to a precarious situation for anyone who believes that stocks don't matter?

By the way, before you email me, I know that dividends and capital gains don't figure into IRA/401(k) thinking. But that's just a limited understanding of the situation. In fact, they matter tremendously because retirement asset net worth will go down substantially if stocks lose value from the tax changes, and I think they will lose tremendous value. Hence, the thrust of my opening: You are losing a great reason to dump stocks, so stocks are less likely to be dumped. Sorry for the circular reasoning.

You can see a possible scenario developing here: The White House and the Democrats in Congress are beginning to see that the whole Big Left Thing is undermining confidence, eroding savings, causing companies not to hire and leading individuals to avoid the risk of create new enterprises. The fact that this litany is now accepted truth may also have something to do with this new tax stand.

In other words, the Obama administration's war on capital may at last be over, or at least in truce mode. To me, this change may also throw the weight of evidence in favor of Doug Kass' bold 'Fast Money' prediction that we have seen the bottom for the year. Earnings permitting (a big caveat), I would tend to agree that Dow 9500 -- the overnight futures level bottom -- may be an important floor that will cause people to buy, not sell, next time it is visited.

Do not minimize Geithner's words. They may have removed the biggest worry for the second half, a tax-derived selloff that would begin with October mutual fund year closings and go right up until Dec. 30.

How about another way to put it: PHEW!

Google Can Goose the Market Yet Higher
Posted at 9:59 a.m. EDT, Friday, July 9

A market that has driven far and fast needs positive surprises to keep moving. When the positive surprise comes from one of the biggest-cap tech companies that is NOT Apple ( AAPL), it can have a more dramatic effect than people might think.

I remember when Google ( GOOG) lost a quick 150 points off of China. If you put back just 10% of that, you may not have done justice to the reversal of Google's Chinese fortunes. Google in itself was a tremendous engine of the Nasdaq, an index that needs reinvigoration given the deflation of Research In Motion ( RIMM) (thanks to Apple) and Amazon ( AMZN) also (also thanks to Apple and the consumer malaise).

I agree with Doug Kass that after a run like this, it's time to play close to the vest . We know that the market's not attracting new players. We know that the public doesn't trust the market.

But the public loves hot stories, and if you give them enough, they will begin to bite.

Yesterday I told you not to underestimate the gains that could come from good news like the Geithner interview on Larry Kudlow's show.

Don't underestimate the good news from getting Google back as a growth stock, either.

Can help. Won't hurt. Even after this run this week.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Apple.
Jim Cramer, co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com, writes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's RealMoney and runs the charitable trust portfolio, Action Alerts PLUS. He also participates in video segments on TheStreet.com TV and serves as host of CNBC's "Mad Money" television program.

Mr. Cramer graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where he was president of The Harvard Crimson. He worked as a journalist at the Tallahassee Democrat and the Los Angeles Herald Examiner, covering everything from sports to homicide before moving to New York to help start American Lawyer magazine. After a three-year stint, Mr. Cramer entered Harvard Law School and received his J.D. in 1984. Instead of practicing law, however, he joined Goldman Sachs, where he worked in sales and trading. In 1987, he left Goldman to start his own hedge fund. While he worked at his fund, Mr. Cramer helped start Smart Money for Dow Jones and then, in 1996, he co-founded TheStreet.com, of which he is chairman and where he has served as a columnist and contributor since. In 2000, Mr. Cramer retired from active money management to embrace media full time, including radio and television.

Mr. Cramer is the author of "Confessions of a Street Addict," "You Got Screwed," "Jim Cramer's Real Money," "Jim Cramer's Mad Money," "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life" and, most recently, "Jim Cramer's Getting Back to Even." He has written for Time magazine and New York magazine and has been featured on CBS' 60 Minutes, NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams, Meet the Press, Today, The Tonight Show, Late Night and MSNBC's Morning Joe.

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