Intraday trading, in which positions are taken that trade initially within the previous session ranges and are sold in stages that do not rely entirely on a new price breakout to bank profit, are in play. Buying support or selling resistance at the low or high of the previous session, and banking 33% at 25 and 50 pips targets that leave the stop loss at the entry and a 33% position that can try to break the range, is the way to approach the current market conditions. New positions will very likely be instigated with momentum that comes from regional market open and closes, with very little action in between. That means that a concentration of momentum will be in place at 8 p.m., 2 a.m., 7 a.m., 11 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. EDT, which will be the ideal times to look for new positions. The four-hour chart trend will determine the best direction to be looking to trade each pair in, with attention focused on the red-flag economic releases from each pair before placing a trade. In trading on Tuesday, the perfect intraday storm set up. Forex pairs were trading at their lows of the week against the dollar after nonfarm payrolls and a U.S. holiday, but were spurred into life by positive Australian trade balance numbers and Asian risk markets that reversed recent selling. That spark allowed the dollar to get sold and reversed pairs from their lows against the dollar to hit their intraday ranges. As U.S. trade unfolds, the next cycle gets set to unfold. The shortened forex week started in earnest with Australia in the macro-economic spotlight and leading the way with a swath of red-flag releases that saw a positive trade balance and then rolled into the interest rate decision and statement that showed a cooling of demand, yet still saw inflationary pressures. From here, the Aud/Usd pair will absorb a week of releases that could easily fashion the path of trade for the month. The U.K. and eurozone follow with their own rate decisions on Thursday, with market-makers looking closely for detail and soundbites that could swing the balance of power back and forth between the euro and dollar index trade in July. Global trade looks to now be based around sentiment, and how easily that sentiment can change the course of trade in the near term especially at a time that global expansion is being questioned.
The support area of note on Eur/Usd is at 1.2450 with any break through or bounce off that price point once again drawing in large volume levels. Gbp/Usd has 1.5100 and 1.5250 as the near-term support and resistance areas to break. Aud/Usd has 0.8250 and 0.8550 as the trading channel to navigate. Usd/Cad has a 1.0450 to 1.0750 trading channel that should provide plenty of sell-support and buy-resistance setups. Usd/Chf is now dramatically oversold, and is looks to be taking a rest from the relentless selling over the last three weeks. Usd/Jpy is consolidating at support around 87.50.