Book balancing at the end of the first quarter has created near-term volatility, which was aided by U.S. ADP private sector jobs numbers that were negative, at -23K, against the expected +40K read.
Dollar IndexGlobal risk markets are still holding in long mode, but unlike the previous 12 months of trade, are not impacting USD buying. It looks as though a market-wide move to get loaded into long-USD, long-term, positions is under way, in an effort to pre-empt any rate increases from the Fed. The 12-month inverse S&P/USD correlations are breaking down; that points to continuing U.S. dollar strength, which in time, could easily lead to a test of the 85.00 area on the dollar index. Favor a long play, long term. TheLFB Charting: Dollar Index Four-Hour Chart Overall View: Uptrend continuation, if 82.54 support can hold 4 Hour Chart Flows: Long Price Points: 82.24 Looking for: Move higher if 82.54 can hold Momentum: The dollar index moved into long mode in early December. Elliott Wave:The dollar index price action suggests a near-term bullish structure is building, after the 81.00 support region was reached, and shows that the U.S. dollar weakness over the past three trading sessions could be basing. Traders will look for a move higher with at least a three-wave structure, A/1-B/2-C/3 legs toward the 82.20 area. The overall view is that the U.S. dollar will remain in a long trend, but only if 81.00 holds and the 82.24 top is taken out.
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