By Gary Gordon of etfexpert.comAs I look at the price of crude oil at $80-plus per barrel, I admit I'm impressed. After all, the dollar gained about 10% in four months, and this dollar-priced commodity managed to hang tough. Yet ever since Thursday's late announcement regarding an EU-IMF solution for Greece, the dollar has lost some of its mojo. In two sessions, Friday's and Monday's, the Powershares DB Dollar Bullish Fund ( UUP) dropped 1.2%. The last thing anyone should do is make a big deal about low-volume trading in a holiday-shortened week. In fact, we shouldn't draw any big conclusions about trading at the end of a quarter before earnings season and before the release of the jobs report. Nevertheless, I can't help but marvel at oil's ability to hold near $80 per barrel and gold's ability to hold near $1100 per ounce even as the dollar had been climbing higher and higher. It made me wonder what will happen when "dollar devaluation" returns? Perhaps the easiest way to answer that question is to look at what some of the top exchange-traded funds did Monday. How much did they gain? Are their respective correlations with the dollar weak so that a respective investment would do well when the dollar is falling?
Still, if you're a believer in the idea that the greenback's days are numbered -- or if you simply believe that investors will refocus on California/New York/Illinois/U.S. fiscal irresponsibility -- you have to like your chances with some of the commodity choices. Commodity companies, from miners to steel producers to oil explorers, surged on the dollar's decline. More intriguing, each of these investments has had a weak correlation with the PowerShares DB Dollar Bullish over the last six months. In fact, the iPath GSCI Total Commodity Return ( GSP) even had an inverse relationship. Essentially, this can be seen as suggesting that commodity companies could do particularly well when Uncle Buck doesn't. I probably won't be ready to commit to specific commodities like copper. Yet, looking out into the summertime, I might be inclined to give a tip of the portfolio cap to Rydex Equal Weight Energy ( RYE). After all, it still remains in a definitive uptrend.
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