By Mohammed Isah, technical strategist and head of research at

EUR/USD: The pair has been trapped in a range between the 1.3818 and the 1.3433 levels since its decline -- initiated at the 1.5143 level, its 2009 high, and halted in early March 10 at 1.3433.

Consolidation to corrective price action has been shaping up between those aforementioned ranges and its current weakness on the back of its failure at the 1.3816 level, its March 17, 2010 high. The pair is now threatening a recapture of the 1.3433 level, its range/2010 low. The big question at this juncture is whether this level will give in to the current bear pressure?

EUR is currently experiencing its second major correction/consolidation since collapsing from the 1.5143 level, with the first seen between Dec. 22, 2009 and Jan. 13, 2010. With the pair maintaining its broader medium-term downtrend triggered off the 1.5143 level and its current range-trading seen as a pause of that trend, an argument in favor of a break of the 1.3433 level is not unfounded.

However, since the 1.3433 area is also layered with the pair's .618 Fib Ret at 1.3405 (1.2328-1.5143 rally), further defense has been added to the 1.3433 level coupled with bull pressure producing rejection candles on the weekly chart between Feb. 18, 2010 and March 2, 2010.

On the other hand, if EUR manages to surmount the mentioned defense and resume its broader downside weakness, we will be looking for it to head further lower towards its June 3, 2009 low at 1.3211 ahead of its big psycho level located at 1.3000 where a cap may be seen turning the pair back up. In the absence of this scenario, we see the pair continuing its consolidation to corrective price activities within the 1.3816 and 1.3433 ranges.
Mohammed Isah is a technical strategist and head of research at, a technical-research Web site. He has been trading and analyzing the foreign exchange market for the past seven years. He formerly traded stocks before crossing over to the forex market, where he worked for FXInstructor LLC as a technical analyst and head of research before joining He has written extensively on the forex market and technical analysis and his articles have been featured in The Technical Analyst Magazine, The Forex Journal Magazine, The International Business Times and At, he writes daily, weekly and long-term technical commentaries on currencies and commodities, which are offered to its clients. He also produces The Professional Suite for his subscribers. He provides full coverage of the forex market with specific focus on G10 currencies as well as the commodities markets, with focus on five key commodities.