AUD-USD: The pair continues to hold on to most of its near-term gains, though seen backing off its intraday high at 0.9131 on Monday.
We believe that while it trades above its Feb. 23, 2010 high at 0.9070 and the 0.8932 level, its Feb. 2, 2010 high, a retarget of the 0.9131 level is likely, with a hold above there accelerating further upside toward the 0.9145 level, its Jan. 21, 2010 high, or even higher, toward the 0.9277 level, its Jan. 18, 2010 high. Ultimately, its 2009 high, located at 0.9410 would follow. Its daily and weekly RSI remain supportive of this view. On the other hand, a violation of the 0.9070 level, its Feb. 23, 2010 high, and its March 1, 2010 high, at 0.8932, will turn risk to the downside toward the 0.8798 level, its Feb. 25, 2010 low. The next level would be its long-term rising trend line, currently at 0.8710, where a cap is expected to turn the pair back up. On the whole, levels above 0.9131/45 are targeted as long as AUD-USD holds above the 0.9070/0.8932 levels, or even the 0.8831 level.