Recap

To recap the bearish scenario:
  • PCs are back, which leaves Macs as the yuppie equivalent of BMWs. Paying twice the price for a computer can only be so cool.
  • The revolutionary iPhone is getting stale. No fresh market, no fresh phone. Androids are looking like an Apple antidote.
  • The iPad is a not so "magical" e-reader. Expect to hear a lot of: "I spent a cold night in line for this?"

Apple thrived during the downturn on the strength of a great Mac and iPhone product cycle, earning its 145% stock appreciation last year. Today, with the stock around $200, Apple sits at a lofty market value of $189 billion, 57% more than PC giant Hewlett-Packard.

Investors like to call the stock's premium valuation "the Apple tax."

It might be time for your refund.

--Written by Scott Moritz in New York.

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