The lack of market-wide leverage is leading to hesitancy in taking price action outside of previous session ranges. The week is loaded with red-flag releases, starting with ADP employment reads from the U.S. on Wednesday, Bank of England and European Central Bank rate decisions and then the U.S. employment details. Trading the foreign exchange market is something relative; in order for a currency to strengthen, another has to give up. In order to properly assess a currency, one should take a long look to its business cycle and inflation prospects and compare it with other areas or economies. We are living in changing times. The effects of the global crisis over the macroeconomic picture are still largely unknown; these things create large, unexpected moves in the foreign exchange market. The latest macroeconomic data points out that the U.S. economy is recovering much faster than expected, Australia and Canada are closely following, but the euro area and the U.K. are barely moving. However, this view could change in just a few days if the macroeconomic misses its mark. The next three sessions really are red-flag days. Euro: The four-hour trend is short. Price action is stuck ahead of the ECB rate decision Thursday. The 1.3460 and the 1.3650 areas are important swing points, with 1.3750 the upside target. News that the E.U. is tangibly addressing the Greek debt issue should help the pair. Momentum is weak. Daily Chart: ATR is 150 pips. RSI is oversold. SMA is @1.3650. Twelve-month 90% correlation to oil moves. Favor a long bounce. Elliott Wave Charts: Impulsive decline is expected so long as the pair trades below 1.3691 resistance. Cable: The four-hour trend is short. Price action dropped to the lowest level in nine months and has put the pair in a deeply oversold state. This could allow the Gbp/Usd to retrace some of the recent selling ahead of the Thursday interest rate decision. Momentum is weak. Daily Chart: ATR is 175 pips. RSI is oversold. SMA is resistance @1.5520. Twelve-month -89% correlation to VIX moves. Favor a long bounce. Elliot Wave Charts: Five waves of decline from 1.6456 top may be near completion. Upward correction in the mid-term.
Yen: The four-hour trend is neutral. Price action is stuck for a third consecutive day. Trade direction depends on the Bank of Japan and its jawboning. A bounce higher from the 89.00 area gets to the 92.00 level, near the 200-day SMA; a break lower gets beneath the 87.00 area. Momentum is weak. Daily Chart: ATR is 90 pips. RSI is at the neutral line. SMA is resistance. Twelve-month -69% correlation to Gold moves. Favor a straddle. Elliot Wave Chart: A Short impulse wave found a low around 88.74. Pair is oversold; upward correction expected before going lower.