Jim Cramer's post appeared Monday on RealMoney. Click here for a free trial, and enjoy incisive commentary all day, every day.All this week I will be fleshing out some of the positive themes I see, including energy. But I will also talk about the specters and ghouls that will most certainly keep people out of the market, as they did in 2009, where right up until the end of the year we saw money out of stocks into bonds, as any attempt to get back to even is being trumped by a belief that last year's rally was quite chimerical. First, a look at the charts in the fourth quarter showed that anything "offensive" just had a banner year, including tech -- software, cloud computing, PC (courtesy of the underestimated Windows 7) and Asian demand for tech -- pure industrials of the United Tech ( UTX) type, and utilities, which were a function of year-over-year growth possibilities; for this area I am thinking utilities as diverse as Con Ed ( ED) and Verizon ( VZ) / AT&T ( T). Really strong end-of-the year moves there, as enterprise demand looks strong. But it doesn't matter, as 2010 is shaping up to be the year when 1) The stimulus goes away, causing a double dip; 2) The budget deficit destroys the dollar and U.S. competitiveness; 3) Rates soar higher; and 4) Housing continues to slip and now hits prime borrowers. I think that Ben Bernanke will navigate the stimulus well and that the deficit will cause rates to rise, but I am used to making money with 6% to 7% rates, and you'd better, too. And I think that the Democrats will be just destroyed in the midterm elections, which will signal a move to the right. I think the media's affection for Obama will be very strong, and no one is ever going to criticize Obama because it is taboo and the retribution is Nixon-like for those who do. But the people aren't the media, and the halo does not include Congress. Gridlock will reduce the deficit, as the Republicans want to spend on whatever elects them and the Dems want to spend on whatever elects them, and the Republicans will be able to block things.
Does that mean the deficit rules? Look at today: Intel ( INTC), the refineries, Boeing ( BA) upgraded. On an individual basis, those will go up despite the deficit. So I figure that the reasons are too strong, too adopted by the press and pundits and too reasonable, so it will be another year where people put money in bond funds and continue, like the fourth quarter, to lose lots of money. That's fine. The bears will win mindshare again. They just won't win money. I am not going to make grandiose predictions at the beginning of the year. As I said, I like some themes and not others. If you make a broad sweeping view on the market, you end up being wrong even though you are right on individual stock selection. So let's keep the chance for ridicule at a minimum and the chance to make money at the maximum? Makes sense to you? It sure makes sense to me.