how many of the vessels on order get delayed or canceled. (Another relevant question: Will demand for raw materials globally -- and in China especially -- increase enough next year to soak up any excess supply?) Every dry-bulk outfit in the world, no matter the size or the vessel-class it specializes in, has a stake in the outcome, from DryShips ( DRYS) (market cap: $1.5 billion) to Top Ships ( TOPS) (market cap: $32 million). In the dry-bulk segment of the shipping industry in 2009, 35% of the vessels scheduled for delivery never saw the water. If owners annul a similar number of newbuildings in 2010, analysts and executives say, the industry may well avoid the worst-case-scenario. But within the dry-bulk community, opinion is divided on just how much of the total industrywide orderbook will see cancellation. The projections run from a bearish 20% -- courtesy of FBR Capital Markets' shipping analyst, Robert MacKenzie -- to a bullish 45% -- see John Wobensmith, the finance chief at New York-based Genco Shipping & Trading ( GNK), one of the rare companies with no ship deliveries scheduled for next year.