(updated with comments from Toll)HORSHAM, Pa. ( TheStreet) -- Three months has been an adequate amount of time to change Stifel Nicolaus' thinking about luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers ( TOL - Get Report). On Thursday, Stifel Nicolaus upgraded Toll Brothers to hold, a quick turnaround from a sell rating placed on Toll shares in August. The last time Stifel made a Toll call, it turned out to be correct: Toll shares plummeted approximately $6 between mid-August and mid-October. Still, is there reason to believe that another quick turnaround -- this time ascendant -- is on the horizon for Toll Brothers' shares? Given the bleak outlook at the luxury end of the homebuilder market, and Toll founder Bob Toll's own recent conservative comments and more specifically, his personal dumping of Toll stock in 2009, there is considerable reason to bet against a rapid recovery. Merrill Ross, an analyst with BGB Securities, said the big issue for Toll is when it will be able to fill homes at a profit, and Ross doesn't see that happening in the near-term future. "They keep lowering the price at which they expect to sell homes, and it is hard to build shareholder value that way, and I think price support for the stock could get pretty tired," Ross said. She explained that the lower pricing on homes could be a result of Toll selling more attached housing units -- but that the bigger issue is that Toll has bought a lot of land that is only appropriate for higher cost detached housing.
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