On a separate note, I was asked to comment on Santander ( BSBR). I really have no edge on the short-term trading. I am, however, constructive on Brazil over the long term and own Vale ( VALE) and Petrobras ( PBR.A). I have also owned the ( EWZ) in the past. I may or may not own Santander in the future after the shares settle, but I choose to sit out the short term, as daytraders are hyperfocused on this one ticker -- I manage many positions across many asset classes -- and big arb desks (buy the parent, short the IPO) come out with all guns blazing. Know when/where you have an edge.

Position: Long BAC stock, BAC calls, VALE stock, VALE calls, PBR.A stock and GS calls

The Perfect Trade?

By Robert Marcin
10:56 a.m. EDT

Commodities can do no wrong. Bad economy or good economy, bulls and bears alike love them. The bulls like them for the reflation trade. The Armageddonists love them as a hedge to dollar debasement that comes with an economic collapse. All talking heads gush positively on Bubblevision.

And everyone knows they have been on fire lately, right? Well, that's not really true. Crude oil has been flat for four months. Copper and gold work higher for sure. But many other commodities have been and continue to be lousy. Lumber, natural gas, steam coal, most grains, steel, electricity, pork bellies and cattle are all down materially this year.

Could it be that speculators have a crush on precious/industrial metals and crude oil? If inflation were about to rage, wouldn't all commodities be rocking? Surely, the fast-money guys want you to bid up the momentum commodity stocks; they pump them all day on CNBC. But something just doesn't seem right to me regarding the commodity trade.

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