- 1. China's solar panel manufacturers, exasperating the situation by adding more capacity, are already dropping prices to $1.80 a watt for polysilicon-based products, which is lower than the $1.85 level we projected back in March for the end of 2009. By way of comparison, the average selling price in the third quarter of 2008 was $4.05 a watt.
- 2. Because of economies of scale, whereby the more solar panels manufactured the lower the cost to make them, other manufacturers will increase capacity to their planned 2010 levels in order to compete against the Chinese. We will now reach the last column in the table below -- 25.7% capacity utilization and 133 days inventory.
- 3. Average selling prices could drop below $1 a watt in 2010 and 50 cents in 2011.
- 4. As many as 50% of the more than 200 solar manufacturers, mired in red ink with current selling prices above $2 a watt, may not survive.