But the next post has a much more modest task -- which is to explain the past -- and hence inform as to where the huge losses that have already been realized have come from. Note that the next post does not discuss where future losses will come from. Instead, I just limit myself to the losses that have been booked already.

That should be easier -- it is almost always easier to explain the past than predict the future, but even then the conclusions will be controversial.

*I was not the only person to predict this. I have only once censored a comment on the Bronte Capital blog because it was too close to what I was thinking and stole my thunder. The last post in this series will reveal that comment and explain why I censored it.

Postscript: Peter Eavis has replied in the comments to this blog suggesting that I am misrepresenting him. He does not necessarily think the losses will be enormous, but he does think it unlikely that they will repay the government senior preferreds.
John Hempton is chief investment officer and founder of Bronte Capital, an Australian based global asset management firm. He was formerly a partner at Platinum Asset Management and has served as chief analyst of tax policy for the New Zealand Treasury.

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