By Bill Smead, chief investment officer of Smead Capital Management. Clayton, N.C. ( TheStreet) -- In a recent CNBC interview, Tobias Levkovich, chief market strategist for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, talked about a "mythical argument" that consumers are never going to spend again. The thesis is that the behavior of consumers will be permanently changed as a result of the depth and length of this recession. In turn, high levels of unemployment could decline doggedly. High sustained levels of unemployment and large over-hanging consumer and government debt could serve as a force field, preventing meaningful real economic growth for years. Leading proponents of this argument are Bill Gross, CEO of PIMCO ( PTRAX) and Jeremy Grantham, cofounder of GMO. Tobias argued that their argument is so ingrained in existing portfolio management actions that it just might be a myth. At Smead Capital Management, we believe we are positioned to do well in that environment. We believe our large-cap recession-resistant brand name companies could thrive if that argument holds water. However, we must constantly harken back to the idea that "When everyone knows something to be true, nobody knows nothin'". Belief in the "weak economy for years" argument has caused a huge amount of U.S. investor capital to chase commodities and worldwide infrastructure investments. These investors are going where they think the economic growth is going to be and want to protect themselves from whatever inflation comes from the policy decisions made to avert an economic depression and bring us out of this recession. We believe there are some big problems with their approach. First, the BRIC trade or idea that the world will be led by the emerging markets of the world peaked last year in a bubble. Bubbles take a minimum of five to seven years to correct and many times take as long as 10 years or more to return as a profitable concept. Therefore, if history is any guide, oil, commodities and emerging markets could be dead money for a number of years.